Wednesday 1 January 2020





10 Year Anniversary of Climate Gate

It’s Officially the Tenth Anniversary of Climategate – and they’ve learned nothing
By Charles Rotter and Anthony Watts
From Charles:
It was ten years ago today that I personally first viewed the instructions to download the Climategate files from the anonymous Russian server.  That set in motion a series of events still affecting the outcome of worldwide energy and environmental policy today.  The whitewashers at the BBC, The Guardian, and elsewhere have started putting up their officially sanctioned narrative version, amounting to little more than nothing to see hear move along.
I wrote up my contemporaneous version of events here.
Anyone who wants to rebut claims of exoneration can use this Ross McKitrick paper for reference.


November 15, 2019

Did climate scientists learn anything from Climategate?
Looking forward, should Climategate matter? Only if scientists failed to learn the appropriate lessons.
At the time of Climategate, I wrote an essay entitled  On the credibility of climate research.
I raised four key issues:
·         Lack of transparency,
·         climate tribalism,
·         the need for improved analysis and
·         communication of uncertainty, and
·         engagement with ‘skeptics’ and critics of our work.
At the time, I was rather astonished by the failure of climate science ‘leaders’ (apart from the climagaters defending themselves) to make public statements about this and show some leadership.
Interesting insights into the ‘leadership’ void at the time of Climategate are revealed by a tranche of emails obtained by the CEI [link] dated the first half of 2010, involving scientists involved iClimategate emails as well as others who are regarded as the keepers of the IPCC ‘flame’ – e.g. Michael Oppenheimer, Steve Schneider, Gabi Hegerl, Eric Steig, Kevin Trenberth.



"At the time, climate-change deniers were desperate to find ways to undermine the idea that global warming was real" and



SUN_Climate_20200101


DOCUMENTING EARTH CHANGES DURING THE NEXT GSM AND POLE SHIFT
PROFESSOR VALENTINA ZHARKOVA’S ‘EXPANDED’ ANALYSIS STILL CONFIRMS SUPER GRAND SOLAR MINIMUM (2020-2055)
Professor Valentina Zharkova’s recent paper ‘Oscillations of the Baseline of Solar Magnetic Field and Solar Irradiance on a Millennial Timescale’ has been accepted for publishing in Nature. It confirms a Grand Solar Minimum (GSM) from 2020 to 2055, as all four magnetic fields of the sun go out of phase, while also suggesting centuries of natural warming post-Minima.

Zharkova’s team’s expanded ‘double dynamo’ calculations match-up almost perfectly with the timelines of past Grand Minimas: the Maunder Minimum (1645–1715), Wolf minimum (1300–1350), Oort minimum (1000–1050), Homer minimum (800–900 BC); as well as with the past Grand Maximas: the Medieval Warm Period (900–1200), the Roman Warm Period (400–150 BC), and so on…
Coming as somewhat of a surprise however, Zharkova’s full and expanded analysis reveals the sun, following its next GSM cycle (2020-2055), will actually enter a 300+ year spell of increased-activity warming the earth at a rate of 0.5C (0.9F) per century, running until the next GSM cycle (2370-2415).
Succeeding that cooling period (2415-onward), the world, according to Zharkova, will continue on with its warming trend, again at an average of 0.5C (0.9F) per century, until the year 2600 when the sun will flip to a prolonged cooling phase running for the next 1000 years (and likely propelling Earth into the next ice age).


Our star is effectively shutting down, starting next year (2020).
The upcoming GSM is forecast (by Zharkova herself, among others) to be similar to the Maunder Minimum (1645-1715) — a time when sunspots were exceedingly rare and much of the planet experienced colder than average temperatures.
We are already seeing an increase in unstable weather patterns, as the weakest solar cycle in over 100 years (SC24) continues to weaken the jet stream, reverting it’s usual zonal (tight) flow to more of a meridional (wavy) one.



14 Jan 2018 - A solar minimum is the low activity trough of the 11-year solar cycle (Schwabe Cycle). ... 1645 and 1715) that coincided with the coldest phase of the Little Ice Age. ... warming, as in the Roman Warm Period, the Medieval Climate Optimum and ... Even when – in a given year – average temperatures are only ...

14 Jan 2018 - A solar minimum is the low activity trough of the 11-year solar cycle (Schwabe Cycle). ... 1645 and 1715) that coincided with the coldest phase of the Little Ice Age. ... warming, as in the Roman Warm Period, the Medieval Climate Optimum and ... Even when – in a given year – average temperatures are only ...
It confirms a Grand Solar Minimum (GSM) from 2020 to 2055, as all four ... with the past Grand Maximas: the Medieval Warm Period (900–1200), the Roman Warm ... reveals the sun, following its next GSM cycle (2020-2055), will actually enter a ... cooling period beginning 2020 should be enough to give almost-every living ...

<Solar Minimums are periods where there are fewer sunspots – associated with cooler weather e.g. Britain's "Little Ice Age" (about c1300 to c1850.)>
An approaching Grand Solar Minimum is gaining evermore support. ... NASA's forecast for the next solar cycle (25) reveals it will be the weakest of the last 200 years. ... about space weather are good news for mission planners who can schedule ... to the Dalton Minimum (1790-1830) but gives no mention of the brutal cold, ...

“If the upcoming solar max of cycle 24 is normal or robust,” I continued, “and ... This affects us because Earth's climate gets cooler when there are fewer solar storms. ... warmer than at the time of the Maunder Minimum and says that a return to a .... and volcanic eruptions that tend to be a part of the Grand Solar Minimum.

An uptick in high-level volcanic eruptions is also associated with low solar activity. Increasing Cosmic Rays are believed to heat the muons in subsurface silica-rich magma (click here for more on that). And larger eruptions (ones that fire volcanic ash above 32,800 feet (10 km) and into the Stratosphere) have a direct cooling effect on the planet, as these ejected particulates effectively block out the sun.

An approaching Grand Solar Minimum is gaining evermore support. Even NASA appears to be on-board, with their recent SC25 prediction — though, predictably, they stay clear of the implications.
NASA’s forecast for the next solar cycle (25) reveals it will be the weakest of the last 200 years.
The maximum of this next cycle — measured in terms of sunspot number, a standard measure of solar activity level — could be 30 to 50% lower than the most recent one.
The agency’s results show that the next cycle will start in 2020 and reach its maximum in 2025:

NASA Solar Cycle website



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