Wednesday, 27 November 2019
EU Parliament called to Reject 'Climate Emergency' Vote
... Only last week, a declaration by more than 700 scientists and researchers was presented in the European Parliament, showing that global warming is happening, but is far more gradual and far less detrimental to the wellbeing of people and societies than activists have been claiming. ...
Thursday, 21 November 2019
Monday, 11 November 2019
A Good Summary of the Little Ice Age
Between 1300 and 1850, the Earth experienced a Little Ice Age whose cause to this day is not known.
Quick Summary of Liklihood of Problems by Atmospheric Scientists
Another way of thinking about the so-called 2C limit is by analogous to a high-way speed limit. If the speed limit is 65 mph, exceeding that by 10 or even 20 mph is not guaranteed to cause a crash, but if you exceed the limit by a lot, your risk of a fatal crash certainly increases.
Larry Kummer has a post today Did the IPCC predict a climate apocalypse? No.
[Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change]
“There is nothing in this Special Report justifying belief that the world will end, that the world will burn, or that humanity will go extinct. It has been misrepresented just as past reports have been (e.g., the 4th US National Climate Assessment). The disasters described the Climate Emergency and Extinction Rebellion activists are those of RCP8.5, the worst-case scenario in the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment report – or even beyond it. RCP8.5 is, as a worst-case scenario should be, a horrific but not apocalyptic future that is improbable or impossible.”
Bottom line is that these timelines are meaningless. While we have confidence in the sign of the temperature change, we have no idea what its magnitude will turn out to be.
With regards to species and ecosystems, land use and exploitation is a far bigger issue.
Cleaner sources of energy have several different threads of justification, but thinking that sending CO2 emissions to zero by 2050 or whenever is going to improve the weather and the environment by 2100 is a pipe dream. If such reductions come at the expense of economic development, then vulnerability to extreme weather events will increase.
Friday, 17 May 2019
Monitoring how well Climate Predictions do "Worries Greens"
"“The United States reaffirms its commitment to re-examine comprehensive modeling that best reflects the actual state of climate science in order to inform its policy-making decisions, including comparing actual monitored climate data against the modeled climate trajectories on an on-going basis,” says the U.S. portion of the communiqué.
Greens who follow the G-7 process were dismayed. […]"
Tuesday, 7 May 2019
The small amount of warming shown by the temperature series has been created by taking averages of readings obtained e.g. Maximum and minimum. In considering the normal variation over 24 hours compared to the tiny fractions of a degree shown by the Time Series calculated, it is necessary to consider whether the additional heat (where found) is uniform across the day, or peaks at particular times. Most obviously, is it hotter during the day when the sun is shining. Or at night when the CO2 "blanket" is stopping the night-time cooling as much as normal.
Evidence is mounting that the latter is true:-
April 30th, 2019
How much has urbanisation affected United Kingdom temperatures?
MAY 6, 2019
This paper finds through the method of observation minus reanalysis that urbanisation has significantly increased the daily minimum 2‐m temperature in the United Kingdom by up to 1.70 K.