Sunday, 10 May 2020

Solar Activity may affect temperature on Earth.


By P Gosselin on 9. May 2020
The global mean temperature in April 2020 was again significantly lower than in February and March, at 0.38°C above the average from 1981 to 2010. The average temperature increase on the globe from 1981 to February 2020 was 0.14°C per decade. The further development promises to be interesting, especially since a number of research institutes expect a higher probability of a cooling La Nina in the Pacific towards the end of the year. March’s solar activity was very low with a sunspot number of 1.5.  Activity in April rose slightly to 5.4. The first sunspots of the new cycle are showing.

What causes the sun to have an 11-year cycle?
Since the Dessau pharmacist Heinrich Samuel Schwabe discovered in 1843 that the sunspots of the sun increase and decrease in an 11-year cycle, science has been puzzling over the reason why this cycle lasts 11 years and why the solar magnetic field also changes its polarity in this rhythm: the north pole becomes the south pole and vice versa.
In July last year, scientists at the Helmholtz Centre in Dresden Rossendorf made a little-noticed but exciting discovery. Every 11.07 years, the planets Venus, Earth and Jupiter are aligned quite precisely. At this point in time, their gravitational force acts jointly in one direction on the Sun.
“The agreement is amazingly accurate: we see a complete parallelism with the planets over 90 cycles,” explains Frank Stefani, one of the authors of the publication published in Solar Physics. Just as the gravitational pull of the Moon causes the tides on Earth, planets could move the hot plasma on the surface of the Sun. But the effect of a simple gravitational force is too weak to significantly disturb the flow in the Sun’s interior, so the temporal coincidence has long been ignored."

Monday, 24 February 2020

Cost Of ‘Net Zero’ Will Be Astronomical, New Reports Warn

From the Global Warming Policy Foundation:-
24th February 2020

Other Interesting Articles

From Matt Ridley:-

Ecomodernism and sustainable intensification

My Times column on eco-modernism:   In the unlikely event that the G7 heads of state are reading The Times at breakfast in Schloss Elmau in Bavaria, may I make a humble suggestion? On their agenda, alongside Ukraine, Greece, ebola and Fifa, is…

The planetary impact of people

I have written a longish piece about the human footprint on the earth, avaliable as a `ChangeThis' manifesto here Here are a few extracts:   I am going to argue that the ecological footprint of human activity is probably…

Tuesday, 21 January 2020

Australian Bush Fires

Viv Forbes has long experience of bushfires in Northern Australia – lighting, fighting and cleaning up after them.

… We’ve had at least 57 bushfire inquiries since 1939, which is about one every two years. Anyone who bothers to read them will soon deduce what should be done. Nothing much has changed except there are more people living in fire-prone zones with no protection, and more forest and private land has been locked up with heavy fuel loads.

The current bushfire tragedy has occurred after 30 years of unprecedented government control of environmental policy at all levels. Many of these destructive policies have been imported under so called ‘international agreements’. As a result, ordinary Australians have been dragged into court for constructing firebreaks or removing dangerous trees on their own land. Governments and green advisers have assumed total stewardship of the environment and they own the results – massive destruction of lives, homes, property, animals and vegetation – over five million hectares and 2,000 homes burnt.
Here is a five-point plan which should come from Bushfire Inquiry number 58.
Firstly, reduce the fuel load especially in national parks and forests by cool season burning, grazing, timber harvesting, slashing/mulching and collecting dead firewood. Appoint trained and experienced foresters to maintain safe and healthy public forests. Private landowners should also be enabled and obliged to become fire safe. Green-tinged politicians and bureaucrats have prevented or hampered all of these reforms.
Secondly, create and maintain wide clear trafficable roads, tracks and firebreaks through the forests and around towns and private properties. In fire seasons, these patrolled fire-barriers will help to confine any fire to one sector and provide a prepared line from which to back burn if there is an approaching fire.
Thirdly, build more dams and weirs to provide water for fire-fighting and to provide fire havens for humans, animals and vegetation. Increase penalties for arson in times of high fire danger.
Fourthly, abolish all restrictions on responsible management of ‘protected’ vegetation reserves on private land – especially the private land sterilised to fulfil foolish government Kyoto Protocol promises or under government-enforced vegetation protection orders. Governments have created these fire hazards by trying to wrap vast areas of vegetation in cotton wool and green tape (both of which are flammable). Government ‘protection’ of flora and fauna has proved to be the fiery kiss of death.
Fifthly, decentralise fuel and forest management out of the cities and into the regions.

Saturday, 4 January 2020

Are Government Rules Increasing Wildfires?

Are Government Rules Increasing Numbers of Wildfires?
4th January 2020

... many are blaming the greens for exacerbating the fires by meddling in the time- honoured practice of burning off excess vegetation to mitigate wildfires.

From the Telegraph ... 
"All over the world farmers are being prevented by “experts” in government quangos from carrying out controlled burning to manage habitats prone to catching fire. Often the precautionary principle on climate is cited. Yet when Caithness’s Flow Country caught fire recently the fire brigade cited the lack of precautions in allowing moors to become overgrown.
And these wildfires massively increase carbon in the atmosphere because they set the underlying peat alight. While the Caithness fire was burning it was estimated that it doubled Scotland’s carbon emissions for the six days that it burned.
Upland land managers in England are currently in dispute with Defra over plans to restrict controlled burning on deep peat. It started with an RSPB challenge in the European courts based on highly questionable pre-2013 science, and EU habitat directives. This led to a voluntary code whereby farmers could only burn to strict criteria such as restoring habitat health. But a Natural England position paper in 2019 would effectively “nail it down so hard as effectively to stop it” according to the Moorland Association.
The science is hotly disputed but research has shown that so-called “cool burning”, the controlled burning of heather when conditions allow in winter, can – counter-intuitively – increase carbon sequestration by turning excess vegetation into charcoal and stimulating plant growth by regenerating sphagnum moss and moorland grasses that absorb more CO2. Breeding bird surveys have consistently pointed to strong correlations between endangered wading bird numbers and moorland that has been burnt. The golden plover, in particular, prefers to nest on recently burnt patches; their eggs are even camouflaged accordingly. And speaker after speaker at the 2019 Wildfires Conference in Cardiff spoke of the need to reduce vegetation in vulnerable areas."

Californian Wildfires


Is climate change driving blazes? Experts say no

Wednesday, 1 January 2020

Early 20th century global warming - Overview of Judith Curry's observation on early 20th century warming:-

by Judith Curry
A careful look at the early 20th century global warming, which is almost as large as the warming since 1950.  Until we can explain the early 20th century warming, I have little confidence IPCC and NCA4 attribution statements regarding the cause of the recent warming.
This is an issue that has long interested me.  Peter Webster wrote a previous post Mid 20th Century Global(?) Warming, which focused on the warm bump that culminated in the 1940’s.  My interest in this period was reignited while working on my report Sea Level and Climate Change.  Then, the recent paper by Zanna et al. discussed in Ocean Heat Content  Surprises further made the wheels turn.
In response to the Ocean Heat Content thread, David Appell posted a link to this paper on twitter:

10 Year Anniversary of Climate Gate

It’s Officially the Tenth Anniversary of Climategate – and they’ve learned nothing
By Charles Rotter and Anthony Watts
From Charles:
It was ten years ago today that I personally first viewed the instructions to download the Climategate files from the anonymous Russian server.  That set in motion a series of events still affecting the outcome of worldwide energy and environmental policy today.  The whitewashers at the BBC, The Guardian, and elsewhere have started putting up their officially sanctioned narrative version, amounting to little more than nothing to see hear move along.
I wrote up my contemporaneous version of events here.
Anyone who wants to rebut claims of exoneration can use this Ross McKitrick paper for reference.

November 15, 2019

Did climate scientists learn anything from Climategate?
Looking forward, should Climategate matter? Only if scientists failed to learn the appropriate lessons.
At the time of Climategate, I wrote an essay entitled  On the credibility of climate research.
I raised four key issues:
·         Lack of transparency,
·         climate tribalism,
·         the need for improved analysis and
·         communication of uncertainty, and
·         engagement with ‘skeptics’ and critics of our work.
At the time, I was rather astonished by the failure of climate science ‘leaders’ (apart from the climagaters defending themselves) to make public statements about this and show some leadership.
Interesting insights into the ‘leadership’ void at the time of Climategate are revealed by a tranche of emails obtained by the CEI [link] dated the first half of 2010, involving scientists involved iClimategate emails as well as others who are regarded as the keepers of the IPCC ‘flame’ – e.g. Michael Oppenheimer, Steve Schneider, Gabi Hegerl, Eric Steig, Kevin Trenberth.

"At the time, climate-change deniers were desperate to find ways to undermine the idea that global warming was real" and


Professor Valentina Zharkova’s recent paper ‘Oscillations of the Baseline of Solar Magnetic Field and Solar Irradiance on a Millennial Timescale’ has been accepted for publishing in Nature. It confirms a Grand Solar Minimum (GSM) from 2020 to 2055, as all four magnetic fields of the sun go out of phase, while also suggesting centuries of natural warming post-Minima.

Zharkova’s team’s expanded ‘double dynamo’ calculations match-up almost perfectly with the timelines of past Grand Minimas: the Maunder Minimum (1645–1715), Wolf minimum (1300–1350), Oort minimum (1000–1050), Homer minimum (800–900 BC); as well as with the past Grand Maximas: the Medieval Warm Period (900–1200), the Roman Warm Period (400–150 BC), and so on…
Coming as somewhat of a surprise however, Zharkova’s full and expanded analysis reveals the sun, following its next GSM cycle (2020-2055), will actually enter a 300+ year spell of increased-activity warming the earth at a rate of 0.5C (0.9F) per century, running until the next GSM cycle (2370-2415).
Succeeding that cooling period (2415-onward), the world, according to Zharkova, will continue on with its warming trend, again at an average of 0.5C (0.9F) per century, until the year 2600 when the sun will flip to a prolonged cooling phase running for the next 1000 years (and likely propelling Earth into the next ice age).

Our star is effectively shutting down, starting next year (2020).
The upcoming GSM is forecast (by Zharkova herself, among others) to be similar to the Maunder Minimum (1645-1715) — a time when sunspots were exceedingly rare and much of the planet experienced colder than average temperatures.
We are already seeing an increase in unstable weather patterns, as the weakest solar cycle in over 100 years (SC24) continues to weaken the jet stream, reverting it’s usual zonal (tight) flow to more of a meridional (wavy) one.

14 Jan 2018 - A solar minimum is the low activity trough of the 11-year solar cycle (Schwabe Cycle). ... 1645 and 1715) that coincided with the coldest phase of the Little Ice Age. ... warming, as in the Roman Warm Period, the Medieval Climate Optimum and ... Even when – in a given year – average temperatures are only ...

14 Jan 2018 - A solar minimum is the low activity trough of the 11-year solar cycle (Schwabe Cycle). ... 1645 and 1715) that coincided with the coldest phase of the Little Ice Age. ... warming, as in the Roman Warm Period, the Medieval Climate Optimum and ... Even when – in a given year – average temperatures are only ...
It confirms a Grand Solar Minimum (GSM) from 2020 to 2055, as all four ... with the past Grand Maximas: the Medieval Warm Period (900–1200), the Roman Warm ... reveals the sun, following its next GSM cycle (2020-2055), will actually enter a ... cooling period beginning 2020 should be enough to give almost-every living ...

<Solar Minimums are periods where there are fewer sunspots – associated with cooler weather e.g. Britain's "Little Ice Age" (about c1300 to c1850.)>
An approaching Grand Solar Minimum is gaining evermore support. ... NASA's forecast for the next solar cycle (25) reveals it will be the weakest of the last 200 years. ... about space weather are good news for mission planners who can schedule ... to the Dalton Minimum (1790-1830) but gives no mention of the brutal cold, ...

“If the upcoming solar max of cycle 24 is normal or robust,” I continued, “and ... This affects us because Earth's climate gets cooler when there are fewer solar storms. ... warmer than at the time of the Maunder Minimum and says that a return to a .... and volcanic eruptions that tend to be a part of the Grand Solar Minimum.

An uptick in high-level volcanic eruptions is also associated with low solar activity. Increasing Cosmic Rays are believed to heat the muons in subsurface silica-rich magma (click here for more on that). And larger eruptions (ones that fire volcanic ash above 32,800 feet (10 km) and into the Stratosphere) have a direct cooling effect on the planet, as these ejected particulates effectively block out the sun.

An approaching Grand Solar Minimum is gaining evermore support. Even NASA appears to be on-board, with their recent SC25 prediction — though, predictably, they stay clear of the implications.
NASA’s forecast for the next solar cycle (25) reveals it will be the weakest of the last 200 years.
The maximum of this next cycle — measured in terms of sunspot number, a standard measure of solar activity level — could be 30 to 50% lower than the most recent one.
The agency’s results show that the next cycle will start in 2020 and reach its maximum in 2025:

NASA Solar Cycle website