Quick Summary of Liklihood of Problems by Atmospheric Scientists
Another way of thinking about the
so-called 2C limit is by analogous to a high-way speed limit. If the
speed limit is 65 mph, exceeding that by 10 or even 20 mph is not guaranteed to
cause a crash, but if you exceed the limit by a lot, your risk of a fatal crash
certainly increases.
Larry Kummer has a post
today Did the IPCC predict a climate apocalypse? No.
[Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change]
“There is nothing in this Special Report justifying belief that the world will end,
that the world will burn, or that humanity will go extinct. It has been
misrepresented just as past reports have been (e.g., the 4th US National Climate Assessment). The
disasters described the Climate Emergency and Extinction Rebellion activists
are those of RCP8.5, the worst-case scenario in the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment
report – or even beyond it. RCP8.5 is, as a worst-case scenario should be,
a horrific but not apocalyptic future that
is improbable or impossible.”
JC
conclusion
Bottom line is that these
timelines are meaningless. While we have confidence in the sign of the
temperature change, we have no idea what its magnitude will turn out to
be.
…
With regards to species and
ecosystems, land use and exploitation is a far
bigger issue.
Cleaner sources of energy have
several different threads of justification, but thinking that sending CO2
emissions to zero by 2050 or whenever is going to improve the weather and the
environment by 2100 is a pipe dream. If such reductions come at
the expense of economic development, then vulnerability to extreme weather
events will increase.
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