tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-60391106650317448532024-03-13T02:32:51.610+00:00Is Global Warming Really a problem?It may have been the increasingly strident voices dismissing any issues raised about the IPCC’s position – a very unscientific attitude which makes sceptical me think they have something to hide. Or it could have been hearing that the historic ice-core evidence didn’t show carbon-dioxide increase prior to warming.So I'm reviewing the science here. anngiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08182464335200536996noreply@blogger.comBlogger36125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6039110665031744853.post-14974612070723453642020-09-10T14:25:00.000+01:002020-09-10T14:25:01.173+01:00<p><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal"><a href="https://www.drroyspencer.com/global-warming-natural-or-manmade/">https://www.drroyspencer.com/global-warming-natural-or-manmade/</a></p><div class="narrowcolumn" id="content" style="background-color: white; border-radius: 15px; float: left; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", times, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.75; margin: 120px 0px 0px 50px; min-height: 78em; overflow: auto; padding: 0.5em 1em; width: 550px;"><div class="post" id="post-77" style="margin: 0px 0px 40px;"><h2 style="border-bottom: 2px dotted rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 18px; margin: 0px;">Global Warming</h2><div class="entry" style="line-height: 1.4em;"><p>“Global warming” refers to the global-average temperature increase that has been observed over the last one hundred years or more. But to many politicians and the public, the term carries the implication that mankind is responsible for that warming. This website describes evidence from my group’s government-funded research that suggests global warming is mostly natural, and that the climate system is quite insensitive to humanity’s greenhouse gas emissions and aerosol pollution.</p><p>Believe it or not, very little research has ever been funded to search for natural mechanisms of warming…it has simply been assumed that global warming is manmade. This assumption is rather easy for scientists since we do not have enough accurate global data for a long enough period of time to see whether there are natural warming mechanisms at work.</p><p>The United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) claims that the only way they can get their computerized climate models to produce the observed warming is with anthropogenic (human-caused) pollution. But they’re not going to find something if they don’t search for it. More than one scientist has asked me, “What else COULD it be?” Well, the answer to that takes a little digging… and as I show, one doesn’t have to dig very far.</p><p>But first let’s examine the basics of why so many scientists think global warming is manmade. Earth’s atmosphere contains natural greenhouse gases (mostly water vapor, carbon dioxide, and methane) which act to keep the lower layers of the atmosphere warmer than they otherwise would be without those gases. Greenhouse gases trap infrared radiation — the radiant heat energy that the Earth naturally emits to outer space in response to solar heating. Mankind’s burning of fossil fuels (mostly coal, petroleum, and natural gas) releases carbon dioxide into the atmosphere and this is believed to be enhancing the Earth’s natural greenhouse effect. As of 2008, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was about 40% to 45% higher than it was before the start of the industrial revolution in the 1800’s.</p><p>It is interesting to note that, even though carbon dioxide is necessary for life on Earth to exist, there is precious little of it in Earth’s atmosphere. As of 2008, only 39 out of every 100,000 molecules of air were CO2, and it will take mankind’s CO2 emissions 5 more years to increase that number by 1, to 40.</p><p>The “Holy Grail”: Climate Sensitivity Figuring out how much past warming is due to mankind, and how much more we can expect in the future, depends upon something called “climate sensitivity”. This is the temperature response of the Earth to a given amount of ‘radiative forcing’, of which there are two kinds: a change in either the amount of sunlight absorbed by the Earth, or in the infrared energy the Earth emits to outer space.</p><p>The ‘consensus’ of opinion is that the Earth’s climate sensitivity is quite high, and so warming of about 0.25 deg. C to 0.5 deg. C (about 0.5 deg. F to 0.9 deg. F) every 10 years can be expected for as long as mankind continues to use fossil fuels as our primary source of energy. NASA’s James Hansen claims that climate sensitivity is very high, and that we have already put too much extra CO2 in the atmosphere. Presumably this is why he and Al Gore are campaigning for a moratorium on the construction of any more coal-fired power plants in the U.S.</p><p>You would think that we’d know the Earth’s ‘climate sensitivity’ by now, but it has been surprisingly difficult to determine. How atmospheric processes like clouds and precipitation systems respond to warming is critical, as they are either amplifying the warming, or reducing it. This website currently concentrates on the response of clouds to warming, an issue which I am now convinced the scientific community has totally misinterpreted when they have measured natural, year-to-year fluctuations in the climate system. As a result of that confusion, they have the mistaken belief that climate sensitivity is high, when in fact the satellite evidence suggests climate sensitivity is low.</p><p>The case for natural climate change I also present an analysis of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation which shows that most climate change might well be the result of….the climate system itself! Because small, chaotic fluctuations in atmospheric and oceanic circulation systems can cause small changes in global average cloudiness, this is all that is necessary to cause climate change. You don’t need the sun, or any other ‘external’ influence (although these are also possible…but for now I’ll let others work on that). It is simply what the climate system does. This is actually quite easy for meteorologists to believe, since we understand how complex weather processes are. Your local TV meteorologist is probably a closet ‘skeptic’ regarding mankind’s influence on climate.</p><p>Climate change — it happens, with or without our help.</p></div></div></div><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>anngiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08182464335200536996noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6039110665031744853.post-26025800016108018122020-05-10T16:35:00.003+01:002020-05-10T16:35:18.085+01:00Solar Activity may affect temperature on Earth.From:-<br />
<br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<a href="http://notrickszone.com/#sthash.MszmnqS1.dpbs">http://notrickszone.com/#sthash.MszmnqS1.dpbs</a><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;"><a href="https://notrickszone.com/2020/05/09/earths-mean-temperature-falling-planetary-alignment-suspected-as-driver-of-the-11-year-solar-cycle/">Earth’s
Mean Temperature Falling, Planetary Alignment Suspected As Driver Of The
11-Year Solar Cycle</a><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<i>By <a href="https://notrickszone.com/author/admin/" title="P Gosselin">P Gosselin</a> on 9. May 2020<o:p></o:p></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<a href="https://kaltesonne.de/monatliche-sonnenkolumne/#more-45191"><b>Prof.
Fritz Vahrenholt’s Monthly Solar Report</b></a><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">The
global mean temperature in April 2020 was again significantly lower than in
February and March, at 0.38°C above the average from 1981 to 2010. The average
temperature increase on the globe from 1981 to February 2020 was 0.14°C per
decade. The further development promises to be interesting, especially since a
number of <a href="https://t32b8e15b.emailsys1a.net/c/200/2838505/1101/0/2303345/1501/144697/9473073808.html">research
institutes</a> expect a higher probability of a cooling La Nina in the
Pacific towards the end of the year. <a href="https://t32b8e15b.emailsys1a.net/c/200/2838505/1101/0/2303345/1501/144689/ee7eb1bb49.html">March’s
solar activity</a> was very low with a sunspot number of 1.5.
Activity in April rose slightly to 5.4. The first sunspots of the new cycle are
showing.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">What
causes the sun to have an 11-year cycle?</span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">Since
the Dessau pharmacist Heinrich Samuel Schwabe discovered in <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">1843</b> that the sunspots of the sun
increase and decrease in an 11-year cycle, science has been puzzling over the
reason why this cycle lasts 11 years and why the solar magnetic field also
changes its polarity in this rhythm: the north pole becomes the south pole and
vice versa.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">In
July last year, scientists at the Helmholtz Centre in Dresden Rossendorf made a
little-noticed but exciting discovery. Every 11.07 years, the planets
Venus, Earth and Jupiter are aligned quite precisely. At this point in time,
their gravitational force acts jointly in one direction on the Sun.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">“The
agreement is amazingly accurate: we see a complete parallelism with the planets
over 90 cycles,” explains Frank Stefani, one of the authors of the
publication <a href="https://t32b8e15b.emailsys1a.net/c/200/2838505/1101/0/2303345/1501/144701/d5c4bbcc9b.html">published
in Solar Physics</a>. Just as the gravitational pull of the Moon causes the
tides on Earth, planets could move the hot plasma on the surface of the Sun.
But the effect of a simple gravitational force is too weak to significantly
disturb the flow in the Sun’s interior, so the temporal coincidence has long
been ignored."<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />anngiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08182464335200536996noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6039110665031744853.post-81795026736114043722020-02-24T18:24:00.001+00:002020-02-24T18:24:08.133+00:00<br />
<br />
<br />
<h1 style="background: none rgb(240, 240, 240); border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.462em; font-weight: normal; line-height: 1.263em; margin: 0px 0px 9px; max-height: 100000px; padding: 0px;">
Cost Of ‘Net Zero’ Will Be Astronomical, New Reports Warn</h1>
<br />
<b>From the Global Warming Policy Foundation:-</b><br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.thegwpf.org/cost-of-net-zero-will-be-ruinous-new-reports-warn/">https://www.thegwpf.org/cost-of-net-zero-will-be-ruinous-new-reports-warn/</a><br />
24th February 2020<br />
<br />
<b>Other Interesting Articles</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<a href="http://www.ecomodernism.org/">http://www.ecomodernism.org/</a><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #4a4a4a; font-family: proxima-nova; font-size: x-small; letter-spacing: 2px; text-align: center; text-transform: uppercase;">A MANIFESTO TO USE HUMANITY'S </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #4a4a4a; font-family: proxima-nova; font-size: x-small; letter-spacing: 2px; text-align: center; text-transform: uppercase;">EXTRAORDINARY POWERS IN SERVICE OF CREATING </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #4a4a4a; font-family: proxima-nova; font-size: x-small; letter-spacing: 2px; text-align: center; text-transform: uppercase;">A GOOD ANTHROPOCENE.</span><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>From Matt Ridley:-</b><br />
<div class="ezsearch-result" style="background-color: white; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(230, 230, 230); box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "Times New Roman", "Times Roman", serif; font-size: 14.84px; margin: 0px 0px 8px; padding: 0px 0px 8px;">
<h2 style="box-sizing: border-box; color: inherit; font-size: 1.4em; line-height: 1.1; margin: 0px 0px 25px; text-transform: inherit;">
<a href="http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/ecomodernism-and-sustainable-intensification/" style="background: 0px 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #303030; outline: none !important; transition: all 0.2s ease-in-out 0s;">Ecomodernism and sustainable intensification</a></h2>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 10px;">
My Times column on eco-modernism: In the unlikely event that the G7 heads of state are reading The Times at breakfast in Schloss Elmau in Bavaria, may I make a humble suggestion? On their agenda, alongside Ukraine, Greece, ebola and Fifa, is…</div>
</div>
<div class="ezsearch-result" style="background-color: white; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(230, 230, 230); box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "Times New Roman", "Times Roman", serif; font-size: 14.84px; margin: 0px 0px 8px; padding: 0px 0px 8px;">
<h2 style="box-sizing: border-box; color: inherit; font-size: 1.4em; line-height: 1.1; margin: 0px 0px 25px; text-transform: inherit;">
<a href="http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/the-planetary-impact-of-people/" style="background: 0px 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #303030; outline: none !important; transition: all 0.2s ease-in-out 0s;">The planetary impact of people</a></h2>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 10px;">
I have written a longish piece about the human footprint on the earth, avaliable as a `ChangeThis' <span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">manifesto</span> here Here are a few extracts: I am going to argue that the <span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">ecological</span> footprint of human activity is probably…</div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<br /></div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<br /></div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<br /></div>
</div>
anngiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08182464335200536996noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6039110665031744853.post-82011379657712027352020-01-28T16:51:00.002+00:002020-01-28T16:51:41.276+00:00More than 13.9 million trees felled in Scotland for wind development, 2000–2019 <br />
<br />
<br />
<div class="nav nonmob" style="background-color: white; color: #00000f; font-family: Corbel, Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;">
<i>posted: </i> <span itemprop="datePublished">January 21, 2020</span> • <a href="https://www.wind-watch.org/documents/category/issues/impacts/environment/" rel="category tag" style="border-bottom-style: none; border-bottom-width: 0px; color: #000066; text-decoration-line: none;">Environment</a>, <a href="https://www.wind-watch.org/documents/category/locations/europe/uk/scotland/" rel="category tag" style="border-bottom-style: none; border-bottom-width: 0px; color: #000066; text-decoration-line: none;">Scotland</a></div>
<h1 class="after entry-title" itemprop="headline name" style="background-color: white; border: none; color: #00000f; font-family: Corbel, Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 30.8px; line-height: 1em; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://www.wind-watch.org/documents/more-than-13-9-million-trees-felled-in-scotland-for-wind-development-2000-2019/" rel="nofollow" style="border: none; color: #000066; text-decoration-line: none;" title="More than 13.9 million trees felled in Scotland for wind development, 2000–2019">More than 13.9 million trees felled in Scotland for wind development, 2000–2019</a> </h1>
<div style="background-color: white; color: #00000f; font-family: Cambria, serif; font-size: 17.6px; margin-top: 1.2em;">
<i>Author:</i> <span class="citation_author" itemprop="author"><rel author="" value="Scottish Forestry"><a href="https://www.wind-watch.org/documents/author/?a=Scottish+Forestry" style="color: #000066;" title="List all work by Scottish Forestry">Scottish Forestry</a></rel></span></div>
anngiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08182464335200536996noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6039110665031744853.post-84838290820481827062020-01-21T14:29:00.001+00:002020-01-21T14:29:01.679+00:00Australian Bush Fires<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;"><a href="https://conservativewoman.co.uk/from-the-front-line-my-advice-for-the-bushfire-inquiry/">https://conservativewoman.co.uk/from-the-front-line-my-advice-for-the-bushfire-inquiry/</a><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">by <a href="https://conservativewoman.co.uk/author/vftcw-com/"><b><span style="font-weight: bold;">Viv Forbes</span></b></a><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Viv Forbes has long experience of
bushfires in Northern Australia – lighting, fighting and cleaning up after
them.<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">… We’ve had at least 57 bushfire
inquiries since 1939, which is about one every two years. Anyone who bothers to
read them will soon deduce what should be done. Nothing much has changed except
there are more people living in fire-prone zones with no protection, and more
forest and private land has been locked up with heavy fuel loads.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">The current bushfire tragedy has
occurred after 30 years of unprecedented government control of environmental
policy at all levels. Many of these destructive policies have been imported
under so called ‘international agreements’. As a result, ordinary Australians
have been dragged into court for constructing firebreaks or removing dangerous
trees on their own land. Governments and green advisers have assumed total
stewardship of the environment and they own the results – massive destruction
of lives, homes, property, animals and vegetation – over five million hectares
and 2,000 homes burnt.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">…<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">Here is a five-point plan which
should come from Bushfire Inquiry number 58.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Firstly,</span></span></b><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">
reduce the fuel load especially in national parks and forests by cool season
burning, grazing, timber harvesting, slashing/mulching and collecting dead
firewood. Appoint trained and experienced foresters to maintain safe and
healthy public forests. Private landowners should also be enabled and obliged
to become fire safe. Green-tinged politicians and bureaucrats have prevented or
hampered all of these reforms.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Secondly</span></span></b><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">,
create and maintain wide clear trafficable roads, tracks and firebreaks through
the forests and around towns and private properties. In fire seasons, these
patrolled fire-barriers will help to confine any fire to one sector and provide
a prepared line from which to back burn if there is an approaching fire.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Thirdly,</span></span></b><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">
build more dams and weirs to provide water for fire-fighting and to provide
fire havens for humans, animals and vegetation. Increase penalties for arson in
times of high fire danger.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Fourthly,</span></span></b><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">
abolish all restrictions on responsible management of ‘protected’ vegetation
reserves on private land – especially the private land sterilised to fulfil
foolish government Kyoto Protocol promises or under government-enforced
vegetation protection orders. Governments have created these fire hazards by
trying to wrap vast areas of vegetation in cotton wool and green tape (both of
which are flammable). Government ‘protection’ of flora and fauna has proved to
be the fiery kiss of death.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Fifthly,</span></span></b><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">
decentralise fuel and forest management out of the cities and into the regions.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />anngiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08182464335200536996noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6039110665031744853.post-64196045293851640242020-01-04T20:33:00.003+00:002020-01-10T12:11:11.441+00:00Are Government Rules Increasing Wildfires?<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Are Government Rules Increasing Numbers of Wildfires?</span><br />
<a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/01/04/green-agenda-exacerbating-australias-wildfire-problem/">https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/01/04/green-agenda-exacerbating-australias-wildfire-problem/</a><br />
4th January 2020<br />
<br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "austin news text roman" , "georgia" , "times" , serif; font-size: 17px;">... many are blaming the greens for exacerbating the fires by meddling in the time- honoured practice of burning off excess vegetation to mitigate wildfires.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "austin news text roman" , "georgia" , "times" , serif; font-size: 17px;"><br /></span>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">From the Telegraph ... </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">"All over the world farmers
are being prevented by “experts” in government quangos from carrying out
controlled burning to manage habitats prone to catching fire. Often the
precautionary principle on climate is cited. Yet when Caithness’s Flow Country
caught fire recently the fire brigade cited the lack of precautions in allowing
moors to become overgrown.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">And these wildfires massively
increase carbon in the atmosphere because they set the underlying peat alight.
While the Caithness fire was burning it was estimated that it doubled
Scotland’s carbon emissions for the six days that it burned.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">Upland land managers in England
are currently in dispute with Defra over plans to restrict controlled burning
on deep peat. It started with an RSPB challenge in the European courts based on
highly questionable pre-2013 science, and EU habitat directives. This led to a
voluntary code whereby farmers could only burn to strict criteria such as
restoring habitat health. But a Natural England position paper in 2019 would
effectively “nail it down so hard as effectively to stop it” according to the
Moorland Association.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 11pt;">The science is hotly disputed</span></span></b><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";"> but
research has shown that so-called “cool burning”, <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/men/thinking-man/can-learn-fires-raging-moors/">the
controlled burning of heather </a>when conditions allow in winter, can –
counter-intuitively – increase carbon sequestration by turning excess
vegetation into charcoal and stimulating plant growth by regenerating sphagnum
moss and moorland grasses that <b>absorb more CO2</b>.
Breeding bird surveys have consistently pointed to strong correlations between
endangered wading bird numbers and <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/06/29/dare-george-monbiot-claim-started-saddleworth-fire/">moorland
that has been burnt</a>. The golden plover, in particular, prefers to nest on
recently burnt patches; their eggs are even camouflaged accordingly. And
speaker after speaker at the 2019 Wildfires Conference in Cardiff spoke of the
need to reduce vegetation in vulnerable areas."<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<br />
<b><span style="font-size: large;">Californian Wildfires</span></b><br />
<h2 class="slug" style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #4349aa; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative; text-transform: uppercase; vertical-align: baseline;">
WILDFIRES</h2>
<h1 class="headline " style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
Is climate change driving blazes? Experts say no</h1>
<section class="byline" style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #555555; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; font-weight: 700; margin: 0.25em 0px 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><div class="authors" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<a href="https://www.eenews.net/staff/Thomas_Frank" style="background: transparent; color: #555555; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Thomas Frank</a>, E&E News reporter</div>
<time datetime="2020-01-09 06:17:32 -0500" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; font-style: italic; font-weight: 400; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Published: Thursday, January 9, 2020</time></section><b><br /></b>
https://www.thegwpf.com/climate-change-plaid-minor-role-in-californian-wildfires-experts-conclude/<a href="https://www.thegwpf.com/climate-change-plaid-minor-role-in-californian-wildfires-experts-conclude/">https://www.thegwpf.com/climate-change-plaid-minor-role-in-californian-wildfires-experts-conclude/</a><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "austin news text roman" , "georgia" , "times" , serif; font-size: 17px;"><br /></span>anngiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08182464335200536996noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6039110665031744853.post-22503403373963593952020-01-01T13:41:00.001+00:002020-01-04T19:07:09.320+00:00<h1 class="entry-title" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: "helvetica neue", arial, helvetica, "nimbus sans l", sans-serif; line-height: 24px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 8px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="font-size: 20px;">Early 20th century global warming - </span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">Overview of Judith Curry's observation on </span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "bitstream charter", serif;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">early 20th century warming:</span>-</span></span></h1>
<div>
<a href="https://judithcurry.com/2019/01/23/early-20th-century-global-warming/">https://judithcurry.com/2019/01/23/early-20th-century-global-warming/</a></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div class="entry-meta" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #888888; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, "Nimbus Sans L", sans-serif; font-size: 12px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span class="meta-prep meta-prep-author" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Posted on</span> <a href="https://judithcurry.com/2019/01/23/early-20th-century-global-warming/" rel="bookmark" style="border: 0px; color: #888888; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" title="9:15 am"><span class="entry-date" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">January 23, 2019</span></a> <span class="by-author" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="sep" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">by</span> <span class="author vcard" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a class="url fn n" href="https://judithcurry.com/author/curryja/" rel="author" style="border: 0px; color: #888888; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" title="View all posts by curryja">curryja</a></span> </span><span class="comments-link" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="meta-sep" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">|</span> <a href="https://judithcurry.com/2019/01/23/early-20th-century-global-warming/#comments" style="border: 0px; color: #888888; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">377 Comments</a></span></div>
<div class="entry-content" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "Bitstream Charter", serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0.85em 0px 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<div style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin-bottom: 1.7em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
by Judith Curry</div>
<div style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin-bottom: 1.7em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
A careful look at the early 20th century global warming, which is almost as large as the warming since 1950. Until we can explain the early 20th century warming, I have little confidence IPCC and NCA4 attribution statements regarding the cause of the recent warming.</div>
<div style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin-bottom: 1.7em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span id="more-24640" style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></span></div>
<div style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin-bottom: 1.7em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
This is an issue that has long interested me. Peter Webster wrote a previous post <a href="https://judithcurry.com/2011/01/21/mid-20th-century-global-warming/" style="border: 0px; color: #333333; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Mid 20th Century Global(?) Warming</a>, which focused on the warm bump that culminated in the 1940’s. My interest in this period was reignited while working on my report <a href="https://judithcurry.com/2018/11/27/special-report-on-sea-level-rise/" style="border: 0px; color: #333333; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Sea Level and Climate Change</a>. Then, the recent paper by Zanna et al. discussed in <a href="https://judithcurry.com/2019/01/14/ocean-heat-content-surprises/" style="border: 0px; color: #333333; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Ocean Heat Content Surprises </a>further made the wheels turn.</div>
<div style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin-bottom: 1.7em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
In response to the Ocean Heat Content thread, David Appell posted a link to this paper on twitter:</div>
<div style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin-bottom: 1.7em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: 700; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/wcc.522" style="border: 0px; color: #333333; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The early 20th century warming: Anomalies, causes and consequences</a></span></div>
</div>
anngiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08182464335200536996noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6039110665031744853.post-32302854021499456182020-01-01T13:40:00.002+00:002020-01-04T19:09:27.657+00:00<br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpFirst" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
10 Year Anniversary of Climate Gate<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<b>It’s Officially the Tenth Anniversary
of Climategate – and they’ve learned nothing<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<a href="https://wattsupwiththat.com/author/jeeztheadmin/"><b>Charles Rotter</b></a> / <a href="https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/11/17/yeah-its-officially-the-tenth-anniversary-of-climategate/">November
17, 2019</a><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
By Charles Rotter and Anthony Watts<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<b>From Charles:</b><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
It was ten years ago today that I personally
first viewed the instructions to download the Climategate files from the
anonymous Russian server. That set in motion a series of events still
affecting the outcome of worldwide energy and environmental policy today.
The whitewashers at the BBC, The Guardian, and elsewhere have started putting
up their officially sanctioned narrative version, amounting to little more than
nothing to see hear move along.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
I wrote up my contemporaneous version of
events <a href="https://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/01/13/climategate-the-ctm-story/">here.</a><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
Anyone who wants to rebut claims of
exoneration <a href="http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.175.4664&rep=rep1&type=pdf">can
use this Ross McKitrick paper for reference.</a><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
A couple of days ago we reposted <a href="https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/11/15/judith-curry-legacy-of-climategate-10-years-later/">Judith
Curry’s excellent 10 year anniversary write up.</a><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<a href="https://nofrakkingconsensus.com/2019/11/20/climategate-10-year-anniversary-reading-list/">https://nofrakkingconsensus.com/2019/11/20/climategate-10-year-anniversary-reading-list/</a></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<b><a href="https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/11/15/judith-curry-legacy-of-climategate-10-years-later/" title="Judith Curry: Legacy of Climategate &ndash; 10 years later
As we approach the tenth anniversary of Climategate and are deluged with whitewashing and revisionist history, we will post a few articles, but cannot counter everything. As far as we are concern"><span style="font-weight: normal;">Judith Curry: Legacy of Climategate – 10 years later</span></a><o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
November 15, 2019<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
In "Climategate"<o:p></o:p><br />
<br />
<a href="https://judithcurry.com/2019/01/23/early-20th-century-global-warming/">https://judithcurry.com/2019/01/23/early-20th-century-global-warming/</a></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<a href="https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/11/15/judith-curry-legacy-of-climategate-10-years-later/">https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/11/15/judith-curry-legacy-of-climategate-10-years-later/</a><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
…<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<b>Did climate scientists learn anything
from Climategate?</b><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
Looking forward, should Climategate
matter? Only if scientists failed to learn the appropriate lessons.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
At the time of Climategate, I wrote an
essay entitled <a href="https://climateaudit.org/2009/11/22/curry-on-the-credibility-of-climate-research/">On
the credibility of climate research</a>. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpLast" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
I raised four key issues: <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "symbol"; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->Lack of transparency, <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "symbol"; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->climate tribalism, <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "symbol"; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->the need for improved analysis and <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "symbol"; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->communication of uncertainty, and <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "symbol"; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->engagement with ‘skeptics’ and critics of our
work.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpFirst" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
At the time, I was rather astonished by
the failure of climate science ‘leaders’ (apart from the climagaters defending
themselves) to make public statements about this and show some leadership.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
Interesting insights into the
‘leadership’ void at the time of Climategate are revealed by a tranche of
emails obtained by the CEI [<a href="https://eelegal.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Horner-response-Redacted-2-2010-copy-2.pdf">link</a>]
dated the first half of 2010, involving scientists involved iClimategate emails
as well as others who are regarded as the keepers of the IPCC ‘flame’ – e.g.
Michael Oppenheimer, Steve Schneider, Gabi Hegerl, Eric Steig, Kevin Trenberth.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
…<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/theobserver/2019/nov/09/climategate-10-years-on-what-lessons-have-we-learned">https://www.theguardian.com/theobserver/2019/nov/09/climategate-10-years-on-what-lessons-have-we-learned</a><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
…<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
"At the time, climate-change
deniers were desperate to find ways to undermine the idea that global warming
was real" and <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
SUN_Climate_20200101<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<a href="https://electroverse.net/">ELECTROVERSE</a><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">DOCUMENTING
EARTH CHANGES DURING THE NEXT GSM AND POLE SHIFT<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<a href="https://electroverse.net/professor-valentina-zharkovas-expanded-analysis-still-confirms-super-grand-solar-minimum-2020-2055/">https://electroverse.net/professor-valentina-zharkovas-expanded-analysis-still-confirms-super-grand-solar-minimum-2020-2055/</a><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
PROFESSOR VALENTINA ZHARKOVA’S
‘EXPANDED’ ANALYSIS STILL CONFIRMS SUPER GRAND SOLAR MINIMUM (2020-2055)<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<a href="https://electroverse.net/professor-valentina-zharkovas-expanded-analysis-still-confirms-super-grand-solar-minimum-2020-2055/">JULY
2, 2019</a> <a href="https://electroverse.net/author/cap/">CAP ALLON</a><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Professor
Valentina Zharkova’s recent paper ‘Oscillations of the Baseline of Solar
Magnetic Field and Solar Irradiance on a Millennial Timescale’ has been
accepted for publishing in <i><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-45584-3">Nature</a></i>. It
confirms a <b><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u>Grand Solar Minimum
(GSM) from 2020 to 2055</u></i></b>, as all four magnetic fields of the sun go
out of phase, while also <b>suggesting centuries of natural warming post-Minima</b>.</span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
Zharkova’s team’s <i>expanded</i> ‘double
dynamo’ calculations match-up almost perfectly with the timelines of past <b>Grand
Minimas</b>: the Maunder Minimum (1645–1715), Wolf minimum (1300–1350),
Oort minimum (1000–1050), Homer minimum (800–900 BC); as well as with the
past <b>Grand Maximas</b>: the Medieval Warm Period (900–1200), the Roman
Warm Period (400–150 BC), and so on…<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
Coming as somewhat of a surprise
however, Zharkova’s <i>full and expanded</i> analysis reveals the
sun, following its next GSM cycle (2020-2055), will actually enter a 300+ year
spell of increased-activity <i>warming </i>the earth at a rate of
0.5C (0.9F) per century, running until the next GSM cycle (2370-2415).<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
Succeeding that cooling period
(2415-onward), the world, according to Zharkova, will continue on with its
warming trend, again at an average of 0.5C (0.9F) per century, until the year
2600 when the sun will <i>flip </i>to a prolonged cooling phase
running for the next 1000 years (<i>and likely propelling Earth into the next
ice age</i>).<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
…<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
Our star is effectively shutting down,
starting next year (2020).<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
The upcoming GSM is forecast (by
Zharkova herself, among others) to be similar to the <b>Maunder Minimum</b> (1645-1715)
—<i> </i>a time when sunspots were exceedingly rare and much of
the planet experienced colder than average temperatures.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
We are already seeing an increase in
unstable weather patterns, as the weakest solar cycle in over 100 years (SC24)
continues to weaken the jet stream, reverting it’s usual zonal (tight) flow to
more of a meridional (wavy) one.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<a href="https://abruptearthchanges.com/2018/01/14/climate-change-grand-solar-minimum-and-cosmic-rays/">abruptearthchanges.com
› 2018/01/14 › climate-change-grand-solar-...<span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://abruptearthchanges.com/2018/01/14/climate-change-grand-solar-minimum-and-cosmic-rays/">The
next Grand Solar Minimum, Cosmic Rays and Earth ...<o:p></o:p></a></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
14 Jan 2018 - A <b>solar
minimum is</b> the low activity trough of the 11-year <b>solar cycle</b> (Schwabe <b>Cycle</b>).
... 1645 and 1715) that coincided with the <b>coldest</b> phase of
the Little Ice Age. ... warming, as in the Roman <b>Warm</b> Period,
the Medieval <b>Climate</b> Optimum and ... Even when – in a <b>given</b> year
– average temperatures are only ...<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<a href="https://abruptearthchanges.com/2018/01/14/climate-change-grand-solar-minimum-and-cosmic-rays/"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://abruptearthchanges.com/2018/01/14/climate-change-grand-solar-minimum-and-cosmic-rays/">abruptearthchanges.com
› 2018/01/14 › climate-change-grand-solar-...<o:p></o:p></a></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://abruptearthchanges.com/2018/01/14/climate-change-grand-solar-minimum-and-cosmic-rays/">The
next Grand Solar Minimum, Cosmic Rays and Earth ...<o:p></o:p></a></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
14 Jan 2018 - A <b>solar
minimum is</b> the low activity trough of the 11-year <b>solar cycle</b> (Schwabe <b>Cycle</b>).
... 1645 and 1715) that coincided with the <b>coldest</b> phase of
the Little Ice Age. ... warming, as in the Roman <b>Warm</b> Period,
the Medieval <b>Climate</b> Optimum and ... Even when – in a <b>given</b> year
– average temperatures are only ...<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<a href="https://electroverse.net/professor-valentina-zharkovas-expanded-analysis-still-confirms-super-grand-solar-minimum-2020-2055/"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://electroverse.net/professor-valentina-zharkovas-expanded-analysis-still-confirms-super-grand-solar-minimum-2020-2055/">electroverse.net
› Articles<o:p></o:p></a></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://electroverse.net/professor-valentina-zharkovas-expanded-analysis-still-confirms-super-grand-solar-minimum-2020-2055/">Professor
Valentina Zharkova's 'Expanded' Analysis still ...<o:p></o:p></a></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
It confirms a <b>Grand Solar
Minimum</b> (GSM) from 2020 to 2055, as all four ... with the past <b>Grand</b> Maximas:
the Medieval <b>Warm</b> Period (900–1200), the Roman <b>Warm</b> ...
reveals the <b>sun</b>, following its next GSM <b>cycle</b> (2020-2055), <b>will</b> actually
enter a ... cooling period beginning 2020 should be enough to <b>give</b> almost-every
living ...<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: #984807; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: #984807; mso-style-textfill-fill-colortransforms: lumm=50000; mso-style-textfill-fill-themecolor: accent6; mso-themecolor: accent6; mso-themeshade: 128;"><Solar Minimums are periods where there are fewer sunspots –
associated with cooler weather e.g. Britain's "Little Ice Age" (about
c1300<sup> </sup>to c1850.)><o:p></o:p></span></i></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<a href="https://electroverse.net/nasa-predicts-next-solar-cycle-will-be-lowest-in-200-years-dalton-minimum-levels-the-implications/"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><o:p></o:p></b></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://electroverse.net/nasa-predicts-next-solar-cycle-will-be-lowest-in-200-years-dalton-minimum-levels-the-implications/">NASA
Predicts Next Solar Cycle will be Lowest in 200 Years ... (i.e. colder)<o:p></o:p></a></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
An approaching <b>Grand Solar
Minimum is</b> gaining evermore support. ... NASA's forecast for the
next <b>solar cycle</b> (25) reveals it <b>will</b> be the
weakest of the last 200 years. ... about space <b>weather</b> are
good news for mission planners who <b>can</b> schedule ... to the
Dalton <b>Minimum</b> (1790-1830) but <b>gives</b> no
mention of the brutal cold, ...<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<a href="http://www.almanac.com%20›%20...%20›%20astronomy%20news%20›%20this%20week%27s%20amazing%20sky%0Dsolar%20minimum%20approaching%20%7C%20a%20mini%20ice%20age/?%20|%20Old%20Farmer%27s%20...%0d">www.almanac.com
› ... › Astronomy News › This Week's Amazing Sky<o:p></o:p></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="http://www.almanac.com%20›%20...%20›%20astronomy%20news%20›%20this%20week%27s%20amazing%20sky%0Dsolar%20minimum%20approaching%20%7C%20a%20mini%20ice%20age/?%20|%20Old%20Farmer%27s%20...%0d">Solar
Minimum Approaching | A Mini Ice Age? | Old Farmer's ...<o:p></o:p></a></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
“If the upcoming <b>solar</b> max
of <b>cycle</b> 24 <b>is</b> normal or robust,” I
continued, “and ... This affects us because Earth's <b>climate</b> gets
cooler when there are fewer <b>solar</b> storms. ... <b>warmer</b> than
at the time of the Maunder <b>Minimum</b> and says that a return to a
.... and volcanic eruptions that tend to be a part of the <b>Grand Solar
Minimum</b>.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
An uptick in high-level volcanic
eruptions is also associated with low solar activity. Increasing Cosmic Rays
are believed to heat the muons in subsurface silica-rich magma (<i><a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/234022172_Explosive_volcanic_eruptions_triggered_by_cosmic_rays_Volcano_as_a_bubble_chamber"><b>click
here</b> for more on that</a></i>). And larger eruptions (ones that fire
volcanic ash above 32,800 feet (10 km) and into the Stratosphere) have a direct
cooling effect on the planet, as these ejected particulates effectively block
out the sun.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<a href="https://electroverse.net/nasa-predicts-next-solar-cycle-will-be-lowest-in-200-years-dalton-minimum-levels-the-implications/">https://electroverse.net/nasa-predicts-next-solar-cycle-will-be-lowest-in-200-years-dalton-minimum-levels-the-implications/</a><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">An
approaching Grand Solar Minimum is gaining evermore support. Even NASA appears
to be on-board, with their recent SC25 prediction — though, predictably, they
stay clear of the implications.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
NASA’s forecast for the next solar cycle
(25) reveals it will be the weakest of the last 200 years.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
The maximum of this next cycle —
measured in terms of sunspot number, a standard measure of solar activity level
— could be 30 to 50% lower than the most recent one.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
The agency’s results show that the next
cycle will start in 2020 and reach its maximum in 2025:<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
NASA Solar Cycle website<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<a href="https://www.nasa.gov/msfcsolar">https://www.nasa.gov/msfcsolar</a><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<br /></div>
<br />anngiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08182464335200536996noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6039110665031744853.post-12876176640962846382020-01-01T13:00:00.000+00:002020-01-01T13:00:46.543+00:00<br />
<b><span style="font-size: large;">Global Warming by CO2 or Cooling by Grand Solar Flare Minimum?</span></b><br />
<br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #1a1a1a; font-family: jaf-facitweb-1, jaf-facitweb-2, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">The next Grand Solar Minimum, Cosmic Rays and Earth Changes (an introduction)</span></span><br />
<div class="postmetadata" style="background-color: white; color: #6d6d6d; font-family: jaf-facitweb-1, jaf-facitweb-2, sans-serif; font-size: 0.8em; letter-spacing: 0.1em; margin: 0px 0px 30px; text-transform: uppercase;">
<span class="text-by" style="color: #779aab;">BY</span> <span class="author vcard"><a class="url fn n" href="https://abruptearthchanges.com/author/abruptearthchanges/" rel="author" style="color: #2473a7; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.3s ease-in-out 0s;" title="View all posts by Sacha Dobler">SACHA DOBLER</a></span> <span class="text-on" style="color: #779aab;">ON</span> <a href="https://abruptearthchanges.com/2018/01/14/climate-change-grand-solar-minimum-and-cosmic-rays/" rel="bookmark" style="color: #2473a7; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.3s ease-in-out 0s;" title="12:09">14. JANUARY 2018</a> <span class="sep">•</span></div>
<br />
<a href="https://abruptearthchanges.com/2018/01/14/climate-change-grand-solar-minimum-and-cosmic-rays/">https://abruptearthchanges.com/2018/01/14/climate-change-grand-solar-minimum-and-cosmic-rays/</a><br />
<br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.whatsorb.com/news/global-warming-by-co2-or-cooling-by-a-grand-solar-minimum?">https://www.whatsorb.com/news/global-warming-by-co2-or-cooling-by-a-grand-solar-minimum?</a><br />
<br />anngiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08182464335200536996noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6039110665031744853.post-80363623850153987892020-01-01T12:49:00.002+00:002020-01-01T12:49:47.576+00:00NASA’s forecast for the next solar cycle (25) reveals it will be the weakest of the last 200 years. - 30 to 50% lower than the most recent one<br />
<b style="font-family: "Open Sans", sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">The next Solar Cycle (25) will be the weakest of the last 200 years.</span></b><br />
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3d3d3d; font-family: "Open Sans", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin-bottom: 16px;">
NASA’s results show that the next cycle will start in 2020 and reach its maximum in 2025</div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpFirst" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<a href="https://electroverse.net/">ELECTROVERSE</a><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<b>DOCUMENTING
EARTH CHANGES DURING THE NEXT GSM AND POLE SHIFT<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<a href="https://electroverse.net/professor-valentina-zharkovas-expanded-analysis-still-confirms-super-grand-solar-minimum-2020-2055/">https://electroverse.net/professor-valentina-zharkovas-expanded-analysis-still-confirms-super-grand-solar-minimum-2020-2055/</a><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
PROFESSOR VALENTINA ZHARKOVA’S
‘EXPANDED’ ANALYSIS STILL CONFIRMS SUPER GRAND SOLAR MINIMUM (2020-2055)<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<a href="https://electroverse.net/professor-valentina-zharkovas-expanded-analysis-still-confirms-super-grand-solar-minimum-2020-2055/">JULY
2, 2019</a> <a href="https://electroverse.net/author/cap/">CAP ALLON</a><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
Professor
Valentina Zharkova’s recent paper ‘Oscillations of the Baseline of Solar
Magnetic Field and Solar Irradiance on a Millennial Timescale’ has been
accepted for publishing in <i><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-45584-3">Nature</a></i>. It
confirms a <b><i><u>Grand Solar Minimum
(GSM) from 2020 to 2055</u></i></b>, as all four magnetic fields of the sun go
out of phase, while also <b>suggesting centuries of natural warming post-Minima</b>.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
Zharkova’s team’s <i>expanded</i> ‘double
dynamo’ calculations match-up almost perfectly with the timelines of past <b>Grand
Minimas</b>: the Maunder Minimum (1645–1715), Wolf minimum (1300–1350),
Oort minimum (1000–1050), Homer minimum (800–900 BC); as well as with the
past <b>Grand Maximas</b>: the Medieval Warm Period (900–1200), the Roman
Warm Period (400–150 BC), and so on…<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
Coming as somewhat of a surprise
however, Zharkova’s <i>full and expanded</i> analysis reveals the
sun, following its next GSM cycle (2020-2055), will actually enter a 300+ year
spell of increased-activity <i>warming </i>the earth at a rate of
0.5C (0.9F) per century, running until the next GSM cycle (2370-2415).<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
Succeeding that cooling period
(2415-onward), the world, according to Zharkova, will continue on with its
warming trend, again at an average of 0.5C (0.9F) per century, until the year
2600 when the sun will <i>flip </i>to a prolonged cooling phase
running for the next 1000 years (<i>and likely propelling Earth into the next
ice age</i>).<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
…<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
Our star is effectively shutting down,
starting next year (2020).<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
The upcoming GSM is forecast (by
Zharkova herself, among others) to be similar to the <b>Maunder Minimum</b> (1645-1715)
—<i> </i>a time when sunspots were exceedingly rare and much of
the planet experienced colder than average temperatures.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
We are already seeing an increase in
unstable weather patterns, as the weakest solar cycle in over 100 years (SC24)
continues to weaken the jet stream, reverting it’s usual zonal (tight) flow to
more of a meridional (wavy) one.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<o:p> </o:p><a href="https://abruptearthchanges.com/2018/01/14/climate-change-grand-solar-minimum-and-cosmic-rays/">abruptearthchanges.com
› 2018/01/14 › climate-change-grand-solar-...</a></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://abruptearthchanges.com/2018/01/14/climate-change-grand-solar-minimum-and-cosmic-rays/">The
next Grand Solar Minimum, Cosmic Rays and Earth ...<o:p></o:p></a></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
14 Jan 2018 - A <b>solar
minimum is</b> the low activity trough of the 11-year <b>solar cycle</b> (Schwabe <b>Cycle</b>).
... 1645 and 1715) that coincided with the <b>coldest</b> phase of
the Little Ice Age. ... warming, as in the Roman <b>Warm</b> Period,
the Medieval <b>Climate</b> Optimum and ... Even when – in a <b>given</b> year
– average temperatures are only ...<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<a href="https://abruptearthchanges.com/2018/01/14/climate-change-grand-solar-minimum-and-cosmic-rays/"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration-line: none;"><o:p></o:p></span></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://abruptearthchanges.com/2018/01/14/climate-change-grand-solar-minimum-and-cosmic-rays/">abruptearthchanges.com
› 2018/01/14 › climate-change-grand-solar-...<o:p></o:p></a></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<br /></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3d3d3d; font-family: "Open Sans", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin-bottom: 16px;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://abruptearthchanges.com/2018/01/14/climate-change-grand-solar-minimum-and-cosmic-rays/">The
next Grand Solar Minimum, Cosmic Rays and Earth ...<o:p></o:p></a></span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3d3d3d; font-family: "Open Sans", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin-bottom: 16px;">
<br /></div>
anngiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08182464335200536996noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6039110665031744853.post-28359644343842282512019-11-27T15:57:00.002+00:002019-11-27T15:57:38.378+00:00EU Parliament called to Reject 'Climate Emergency' Vote<br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.thegwpf.com/european-groups-call-on-meps-to-reject-climate-emergency-vote/">https://www.thegwpf.com/european-groups-call-on-meps-to-reject-climate-emergency-vote/</a><br />
<h1 style="background: none rgb(240, 240, 240); border: 0px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.462em; font-weight: normal; line-height: 1.263em; margin: 0px 0px 9px; max-height: 100000px; padding: 0px;">
European Groups Call On MEPs To Reject ‘Climate Emergency’ Vote</h1>
<ul class="meta" style="background: none rgb(240, 240, 240); border: 0px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.077em; line-height: 1.286em; list-style: none; margin: 0px 0px 16px; max-height: 100000px; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px;">
<li style="background: none; border: 0px; float: left; font-size: 14.008px; list-style: none; margin: 0px; max-height: 100000px; padding: 0px 6px 0px 0px;">Date: 27/11/19</li>
<li style="background: url("images/separator-meta.png") 0px 50% no-repeat; border: 0px; float: left; font-size: 14.008px; list-style: none; margin: 0px; max-height: 100000px; padding: 0px 6px 0px 7px;"><span class="author" style="background: none; border: 0px; font-size: 14.0094px; margin: 0px; max-height: 100000px; padding: 0px;"></span></li>
<li style="background: url("images/separator-meta.png") 0px 50% no-repeat; border: 0px; float: left; font-size: 14.008px; list-style: none; margin: 0px; max-height: 100000px; padding: 0px 6px 0px 7px;">European Climate Realist Network</li>
</ul>
<div>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #010101; font-family: "playfair display", georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 18px;">... Only last week, </span><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://thegwpf.us4.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3Dc920274f2a364603849bbb505%26id%3D8de5d346f0%26e%3D9a49ab9eca&source=gmail&ust=1574956499064000&usg=AFQjCNEYWI-2Q9atLeBhZe7hg0TF8nw0wg" fg_scanned="1" href="https://thegwpf.us4.list-manage.com/track/click?u=c920274f2a364603849bbb505&id=8de5d346f0&e=9a49ab9eca" style="background-color: white; color: #0755f4; font-family: "playfair display", georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 18px; outline: none;" target="_blank">a declaration by more than 700 scientists and researchers</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #010101; font-family: "playfair display", georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 18px;"> was presented in the European Parliament, showing that global warming is happening, but is far more gradual and far less detrimental to the wellbeing of people and societies than activists have been claiming. ...</span></div>
anngiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08182464335200536996noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6039110665031744853.post-81880882643809546482019-11-21T16:11:00.000+00:002020-01-01T13:38:30.647+00:00ClimateGate Tenth Anniversary<br />
<br />
<span id="wikipedia-extract" style="border: 0px; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Climatic Research Unit email controversy began in November 2009 with the hacking of a server at the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) at the University of East Anglia (UEA) by an external attacker, copying thousands of emails and computer files, Climatic Research Unit documents to various internet locations.</span><br />
<br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpFirst" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
10 Year Anniversary of Climate Gate<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<b>It’s Officially the Tenth Anniversary
of Climategate – and they’ve learned nothing<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<a href="https://wattsupwiththat.com/author/jeeztheadmin/"><b>Charles Rotter</b></a> / <a href="https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/11/17/yeah-its-officially-the-tenth-anniversary-of-climategate/">November
17, 2019</a><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
By Charles Rotter and Anthony Watts<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<b>From Charles:</b><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
It was ten years ago today that I personally
first viewed the instructions to download the Climategate files from the
anonymous Russian server. That set in motion a series of events still
affecting the outcome of worldwide energy and environmental policy today.
The whitewashers at the BBC, The Guardian, and elsewhere have started putting
up their officially sanctioned narrative version, amounting to little more than
nothing to see hear move along.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
I wrote up my contemporaneous version of
events <a href="https://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/01/13/climategate-the-ctm-story/">here.</a><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
Anyone who wants to rebut claims of
exoneration <a href="http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.175.4664&rep=rep1&type=pdf">can
use this Ross McKitrick paper for reference.</a><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
A couple of days ago we reposted <a href="https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/11/15/judith-curry-legacy-of-climategate-10-years-later/">Judith
Curry’s excellent 10 year anniversary write up.</a><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<a href="https://wattsupwiththat.com/author/jeeztheadmin/"><b>Charles Rotter</b></a> / <a href="https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/11/17/yeah-its-officially-the-tenth-anniversary-of-climategate/">November
17, 2019</a><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
By Charles Rotter and Anthony Watts<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<b>From Charles:</b><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
It was ten years ago today that I
personally first viewed the instructions to download the Climategate files from
the anonymous Russian server. That set in motion a series of events still
affecting the outcome of worldwide energy and environmental policy today.
The whitewashers at the BBC, The Guardian, and elsewhere have started putting
up their officially sanctioned narrative version, amounting to little more than
nothing to see hear move along.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
I wrote up my contemporaneous version of
events <a href="https://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/01/13/climategate-the-ctm-story/">here.</a><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
Anyone who wants to rebut claims of
exoneration <a href="http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.175.4664&rep=rep1&type=pdf">can
use this Ross McKitrick paper for reference.</a><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
A couple of days ago we reposted <a href="https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/11/15/judith-curry-legacy-of-climategate-10-years-later/">Judith
Curry’s excellent 10 year anniversary write up.</a><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<b><a href="https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/11/15/judith-curry-legacy-of-climategate-10-years-later/" title="Judith Curry: Legacy of Climategate &ndash; 10 years later
As we approach the tenth anniversary of Climategate and are deluged with whitewashing and revisionist history, we will post a few articles, but cannot counter everything. As far as we are concern"><span style="font-weight: normal;">Judith Curry: Legacy of Climategate – 10 years later</span></a><o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
November 15, 2019<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<a href="https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/11/15/judith-curry-legacy-of-climategate-10-years-later/">https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/11/15/judith-curry-legacy-of-climategate-10-years-later/</a></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
…<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<b>Did climate scientists learn anything
from Climategate?</b><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
Looking forward, should Climategate
matter? Only if scientists failed to learn the appropriate lessons.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
At the time of Climategate, I wrote an
essay entitled <a href="https://climateaudit.org/2009/11/22/curry-on-the-credibility-of-climate-research/">On
the credibility of climate research</a>. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpLast" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
I raised four key issues: <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
</div>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->Lack of transparency, </li>
<li><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->climate tribalism, </li>
<li><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->the need for improved analysis and </li>
<li><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->communication of uncertainty, and </li>
<li><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->engagement with ‘skeptics’ and critics of our
work.</li>
</ul>
<!--[if !supportLists]--><o:p></o:p><br />
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpFirst" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
At the time, I was rather astonished by
the failure of climate science ‘leaders’ (apart from the climagaters defending
themselves) to make public statements about this and show some leadership.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
Interesting insights into the
‘leadership’ void at the time of Climategate are revealed by a tranche of
emails obtained by the CEI [<a href="https://eelegal.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Horner-response-Redacted-2-2010-copy-2.pdf">link</a>]
dated the first half of 2010, involving scientists involved iClimategate emails
as well as others who are regarded as the keepers of the IPCC ‘flame’ – e.g.
Michael Oppenheimer, Steve Schneider, Gabi Hegerl, Eric Steig, Kevin Trenberth.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
…<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpFirst" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/theobserver/2019/nov/09/climategate-10-years-on-what-lessons-have-we-learned">https://www.theguardian.com/theobserver/2019/nov/09/climategate-10-years-on-what-lessons-have-we-learned</a></div>
<br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; mso-add-space: auto;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<a href="https://nortonsafe.search.ask.com/web?chn=1000350&cmpgn=nov19&doi=2019-11-21&geo=gb&guid=a2c07bcb-73fc-486a-a02d-99bdfe065bb3&locale=en_gb&o=APN12175&p2=%5EET%5Enov19%5E&page=1&prt=ngc&trackId=&ver=3.10.2.1&q=The+Climategate+Emails&tpr=5" style="border: 0px; color: #3300b5; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" ul-attr-acen="arsRelatedSearch" ul-attr-acor="4" ul-attr-arshost="ars-gcp-prd.sse-iacapps.com" ul-attr-feedurl="%2Fars%2Ffeedback%3ForiginalQuery%3Dclimategate%26relatedQuery%3Dthe%2Bclimategate%2Bemails" ul-attr-tag_name="The <KW>Climategate</KW> Emails">The <kw style="font-weight: normal;">Climategate</kw> Emails</a><br />
<br />
<a href="https://nortonsafe.search.ask.com/web?chn=1000350&cmpgn=nov19&doi=2019-11-21&geo=gb&guid=a2c07bcb-73fc-486a-a02d-99bdfe065bb3&locale=en_gb&o=APN12175&p2=%5EET%5Enov19%5E&page=1&prt=ngc&trackId=&ver=3.10.2.1&q=Ten+Years+On&tpr=5" style="border: 0px; color: #3300b5; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" ul-attr-acen="arsRelatedSearch" ul-attr-acor="2" ul-attr-arshost="ars-gcp-prd.sse-iacapps.com" ul-attr-feedurl="%2Fars%2Ffeedback%3ForiginalQuery%3D10%2Byears%2Bon%26relatedQuery%3Dten%2Byears%2Bon" ul-attr-tag_name="Ten <KW>Years On</KW>"><span style="color: #3300b5; font-family: arial, sans-serif;"><span style="border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-style: initial;"><b>Ten </b></span></span><kw style="border: 0px; font-weight: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Years On</kw></a><br />
<br />anngiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08182464335200536996noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6039110665031744853.post-31332439254990713162019-11-11T13:06:00.000+00:002019-11-11T13:06:07.258+00:00<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><b>A Good Summary of the Little Ice Age</b></span><br />
<br />
<br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "pt sans" , sans-serif; font-size: 18px;">Between 1300 and 1850, the Earth experienced a Little Ice Age whose cause to this day is not known.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "pt sans" , sans-serif; font-size: 18px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "pt sans" , sans-serif; font-size: 18px;"><br /></span>
<a href="https://interestingengineering.com/the-little-ice-age-what-happened-around-the-world?utm_source=CCNet+Newsletter&utm_campaign=2ce5aa9597-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2019_05_16_03_17&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_fe4b2f45ef-2ce5aa9597-36411009">https://interestingengineering.com/the-little-ice-age-what-happened-around-the-world?utm_source=CCNet+Newsletter&utm_campaign=2ce5aa9597-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2019_05_16_03_17&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_fe4b2f45ef-2ce5aa9597-36411009</a>anngiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08182464335200536996noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6039110665031744853.post-12591028628279691872019-11-11T13:05:00.004+00:002019-11-11T13:05:42.750+00:00<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Quick Summary of Liklihood of Problems by Atmospheric Scientists</span><br />
<br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;"><a href="https://judithcurry.com/2019/10/16/climate-limits-and-timelines/#more-25319">https://judithcurry.com/2019/10/16/climate-limits-and-timelines/#more-25319</a><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">Another way of thinking about the
so-called 2C limit is by analogous to a high-way speed limit. If the
speed limit is 65 mph, exceeding that by 10 or even 20 mph is not guaranteed to
cause a crash, but if you exceed the limit by a lot, your risk of a fatal crash
certainly increases.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">Larry Kummer has a post
today <a href="https://fabiusmaximus.com/2019/10/16/ipcc-sr15-and-doomsters/"><b><span style="font-weight: bold;">Did the IPCC predict a climate apocalypse? No.</span></b></a><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">[<b><span style="font-weight: bold;">Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change]</span></b><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">“There is nothing in this <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Special Report</span></b> justifying belief that the world will end,
that the world will burn, or that humanity will go extinct. It has been
misrepresented just as past reports have been (e.g., <a href="https://fabiusmaximus.com/2017/11/18/roger-pielke-jr-national-climate-assessment/" target="_blank" title="FM">the 4th US National Climate Assessment</a>). The
disasters described the Climate Emergency and Extinction Rebellion activists
are those of RCP8.5, the worst-case scenario in the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment
report – or even beyond it. RCP8.5 is, as a worst-case scenario should be,
a <a href="https://judithcurry.com/2018/11/24/is-rcp8-5-an-impossible-scenario/" target="_blank" title="Climate Etc">horrific but not apocalyptic future</a> that
is <a href="https://fabiusmaximus.com/2015/07/13/coal-climate-apocalypse-87192/" target="_blank" title="FM">improbable or impossible</a>.”<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; font-weight: bold;">JC
conclusion</span></span></b><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">Bottom line is that these
timelines are meaningless. While we have confidence in the sign of the
temperature change, we have no idea what its magnitude will turn out to
be. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">…<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;"> With regards to species and
ecosystems, <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">land use and exploitation</span></b> is a far
bigger issue.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 11.0pt;">Cleaner sources of energy have
several different threads of justification, but thinking that sending CO2
emissions to zero by 2050 or whenever is going to improve the weather and the
environment by 2100 is a pipe dream. <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">If such reductions come at
the expense of economic development, then vulnerability to extreme weather
events will increase.</span></b><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />anngiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08182464335200536996noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6039110665031744853.post-82570813606889451702019-05-17T13:56:00.001+01:002019-05-17T13:56:06.748+01:00<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<div class="content-category clearfix" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #333333; font-family: "Open Sans", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">
<span style="font-family: "fjalla one", sans-serif; font-size: 40px;">The Little Ice Age: What Happened Around the World</span></div>
<div class="content-sub-title" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #333333; font-family: "PT Sans", sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 10px;">
Between 1300 and 1850, the Earth experienced a Little Ice Age whose cause to this day is not known.<br />
<span style="color: #151515; font-family: lora, serif; font-size: 17px;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: #151515; font-family: lora, serif; font-size: 17px;">During the period 950 CE to 1250 CE, the</span><span style="color: #151515; font-family: lora, serif; font-size: 17px;"> earth experienced an unusually warm period, which</span><span style="color: #151515; font-family: lora, serif; font-size: 17px;"> became known as the </span><a class="underline border-color-science" href="https://www.britannica.com/science/medieval-warm-period" rel="nofollow" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 3px solid rgb(104, 159, 56); border-left-color: rgb(104, 159, 56); border-right-color: rgb(104, 159, 56); border-top-color: rgb(104, 159, 56); box-sizing: border-box; color: #020202; font-family: lora, serif; font-size: 17px;" target="_blank">Medieval Warm Period</a><span style="color: #151515; font-family: lora, serif; font-size: 17px;"> (MWP) or the Medieval Climatic Anomaly. At their height, temperatures during that period were similar to those experienced during earth's mid-20th-century warming period.</span><br />
<span style="color: #151515; font-family: lora, serif; font-size: 17px;"><br /></span>
See<br />
https://interestingengineering.com/the-little-ice-age-what-happened-around-the-world?<a href="https://interestingengineering.com/the-little-ice-age-what-happened-around-the-world?">https://interestingengineering.com/the-little-ice-age-what-happened-around-the-world?</a><br />
<br /></div>
anngiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08182464335200536996noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6039110665031744853.post-10024982424382840162019-05-17T13:49:00.000+01:002019-05-17T13:49:43.798+01:00<br />
<br />
<br />
Monitoring how well Climate Predictions do "Worries Greens"<br />
<br />
<br />
"<span style="background-color: white; color: #010101; font-family: "playfair display", georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 18px;">“The United States reaffirms its commitment to re-examine comprehensive modeling that best reflects the actual state of climate science in order to inform its policy-making decisions, including comparing actual monitored climate data against the modeled climate trajectories on an on-going basis,” says the U.S. portion of the communiqué.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #010101; font-family: "playfair display", georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 18px;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #010101; font-family: "playfair display", georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 18px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #010101; font-family: "playfair display", georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 18px;">Greens who follow the G-7 process were dismayed. […]"</span>anngiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08182464335200536996noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6039110665031744853.post-68901341306100615202019-05-07T20:53:00.003+01:002019-05-07T20:57:16.586+01:00<br />
Night-Time Warming<br />
<br />
The small amount of warming shown by the temperature series has been created by taking averages of readings obtained e.g. Maximum and minimum. In considering the normal variation over 24 hours compared to the tiny fractions of a degree shown by the Time Series calculated, it is necessary to consider whether the additional heat (where found) is uniform across the day, or peaks at particular times. Most obviously, is it hotter during the day when the sun is shining. Or at night when the CO2 "blanket" is stopping the night-time cooling as much as normal.<br />
<br />
Evidence is mounting that the latter is true:-<br />
<br />
<h2 style="background-color: white; border-bottom: 2px dotted rgb(255, 255, 255); font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; font-size: 18px; margin: 0px;">
<a href="http://www.drroyspencer.com/2019/04/nasa-airs-80-of-u-s-warming-has-been-at-night/" rel="bookmark" style="color: #885500;" title="Permanent Link to NASA AIRS: 80% of U.S. Warming has been at Night">NASA AIRS: 80% of U.S. Warming has been at Night</a></h2>
<div>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #885500; font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , "times" , serif; font-size: 14.4px;">April 30th, 2019</span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #885500; font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , "times" , serif; font-size: 14.4px;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
is<br />
<br />
<h1 style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; line-height: 1.1em; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">
<span style="font-size: large;">How much has urbanisation affected United Kingdom temperatures?</span></h1>
<div class="date" id="single-date" style="background-color: white; color: #757575; font-family: "Trebuchet MS", "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans", Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; padding-top: 10px; text-transform: uppercase;">
MAY 6, 2019</div>
</div>
<div class="date" id="single-date" style="background-color: white; color: #757575; font-family: "Trebuchet MS", "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans", Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; padding-top: 10px; text-transform: uppercase;">
<br /></div>
<div class="date" id="single-date" style="background-color: white; color: #757575; font-family: "Trebuchet MS", "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans", Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; padding-top: 10px; text-transform: uppercase;">
<div style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; font-size: 13px; margin-bottom: 10px; padding: 0px; text-transform: none;">
<em>This paper finds through the method of observation minus reanalysis that urbanisation has significantly increased the daily minimum 2‐m temperature in the United Kingdom by up to 1.70 K.</em></div>
<div style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; font-size: 13px; margin-bottom: 10px; padding: 0px; text-transform: none;">
<a href="https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/asl.896" style="color: #6238f1; font-weight: 700; text-decoration-line: none;" title="https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/asl.896">https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/asl.896</a></div>
</div>
anngiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08182464335200536996noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6039110665031744853.post-74887234998781870072018-10-28T13:48:00.002+00:002018-10-28T13:48:40.724+00:00Plants help in controlling the weather and climate ...<br />
Plants help in controlling the weather and climate ...<br />
<br />
<h1 class="post__title__title mv025 noe" data-reactid="192" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1a1a1a; font-family: "Noe Display", Merriweather, Georgia, serif; font-size: 2.5rem; line-height: 1.15; margin: 0.25em 0px 0.5em;">
Forests Emerge as a Major Overlooked Climate Factor</h1>
<div class="post__title__meta flex flex-wrap flex-items-start" data-reactid="201" style="-webkit-box-align: start; align-items: flex-start; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1a1a1a; display: flex; flex-wrap: wrap; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">
<div class="post__title__excerpt wysiwyg p italic mb1 mt025 pr2 o4" data-reactid="202" style="-webkit-box-ordinal-group: 3; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.05rem; font-style: italic; line-height: 1.75; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-top: 0.25em; opacity: 0.5; order: 2; padding-right: 2em; width: 608px;">
New work at the intersection of atmospheric science and ecology is finding that forests can influence rainfall and climate from across a continent.</div>
<div class="post__title__excerpt wysiwyg p italic mb1 mt025 pr2 o4" data-reactid="202" style="-webkit-box-ordinal-group: 3; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.05rem; font-style: italic; line-height: 1.75; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-top: 0.25em; opacity: 0.5; order: 2; padding-right: 2em; width: 608px;">
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; line-height: 1.875; margin-bottom: 1.875em;">
hen Abigail Swann started her career in the mid-2000s, she was one of just a handful of scientists exploring a potentially radical notion: that the green plants living on Earth’s surface could have a major influence on the planet’s climate. For decades, most atmospheric scientists had focused their weather and climate models on wind, rain and other physical phenomena.</div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; line-height: 1.875; margin-bottom: 1.875em; margin-top: 1.875em;">
But with powerful computer models that can simulate how plants move water, carbon dioxide and other chemicals between ground and air, Swann has found that vegetation can control weather patterns across huge distances. The destruction or expansion of forests on one continent might boost rainfall or cause a drought halfway around the world.</div>
</div>
</div>
anngiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08182464335200536996noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6039110665031744853.post-4489580582223504022018-10-28T13:45:00.000+00:002018-10-28T13:45:43.004+00:00Atoll Islands OK<br />
<br />
25th October 2018<br />
<br />
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/wcc.557<br />
<br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #1c1d1e; font-family: "Open Sans", sans-serif, icomoon; font-size: 16px;">Over the past decades, atoll islands exhibited no widespread sign of physical destabilization in the face of sea‐level rise. A reanalysis of available data, which cover 30 Pacific and Indian Ocean atolls including 709 islands, reveals that no atoll lost land area and that 88.6% of islands were either stable or increased in area, while only 11.4% contracted. Atoll islands affected by rapid sea‐level rise did not show a distinct behavior compared to islands on other atolls. Island behavior correlated with island size, and no island smaller than 10 ha decreased in size. This threshold could be used to define the minimum island size required for human occupancy and to assess atoll countries and territories' vulnerability to climate change. Beyond emphasizing the major role of climate drivers in causing substantial changes in the configuration of islands, this reanalysis of available data indicates that these drivers explain subregional variations in atoll behavior and within‐atoll variations in island and shoreline (lagoon vs. ocean) behavior, following atoll‐specific patterns. Increasing human disturbances, especially land reclamation and human structure construction, operated on atoll‐to‐shoreline spatial scales, explaining marked within‐atoll variations in island and shoreline behavior. Collectively, these findings highlight the heterogeneity of atoll situations. Further research needs include addressing geographical gaps (Indian Ocean, Caribbean, north‐western Pacific atolls), using standardized protocols to allow comparative analyses of island and shoreline behavior across ocean regions, investigating the role of ecological drivers, and promoting interdisciplinary approaches. Such efforts would assist in anticipating potential future changes in the contributions and interactions of key drivers.</span><br />
<br />
<br />anngiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08182464335200536996noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6039110665031744853.post-81492040485603567672018-08-08T10:26:00.004+01:002018-08-27T12:52:33.030+01:00<br />
<br />
<section class="fyre-comment-body" style="background-color: #f9f6f2; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.8rem; margin: 0px 0px 8px; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px;"><div class="fyre-comment" itemprop="text" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 5px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative;">
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #4c4c4c; font-family: "Telesans Text Regular", Arial, sans-serif; margin-bottom: 10px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">
</div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #4c4c4c; font-family: "Telesans Text Regular", Arial, sans-serif; margin-bottom: 10px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">
Just because we are living through a year as hot as 1976 we have more lurid headlines of catastrophe. So I will re-iterate that:-</div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 10px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">
</div>
<ul style="color: #4c4c4c; font-family: "Telesans Text Regular", Arial, sans-serif;">
<li>That the Earth will, over 100 years or so, become catastrophically warm, is unproven; and cannot be proven.</li>
<li>Climate scientists do not understand the naturally occurring cycles sufficiently well, and cannot calculate the earth's global average temperature sufficiently well, to have any certainty.</li>
<li>The advocates of the policy to reduce carbon-dioxide use are using the Precautionary Principle, but without considering suficiently whether alternative policies wouldn't be more effective, and do less harm.</li>
</ul>
<span style="color: #4c4c4c; font-family: "telesans text regular" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 10px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">
<span style="color: #4c4c4c; font-family: "telesans text regular" , "arial" , sans-serif;">I recommend that whenever current conditions are used to blow up scare stories, you consult https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/</span></div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 10px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">
<span style="color: #4c4c4c; font-family: "telesans text regular" , "arial" , sans-serif;">Yesterday's post addresses the current headlines ...</span></div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 10px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">
<span style="color: #4c4c4c; font-family: "telesans text regular" , "arial" , sans-serif;">https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2018/08/07/hothouse-earth/</span><br />
http://perhapsallnatural.blogspot.com/2018/06/dr-judith-currys-debates-climate-change.html<br />
<br /></div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 10px; padding: 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">
<br /></div>
<div style="color: #4c4c4c; font-family: "Telesans Text Regular", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.4rem;">
</div>
</div>
</section>anngiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08182464335200536996noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6039110665031744853.post-39364860582121166512018-04-25T14:24:00.001+01:002018-04-25T14:31:48.609+01:00<br />
<br />
Very good depiction of why climate change isn't settled science at<br />
<a href="https://judithcurry.com/2018/04/18/four-questions-on-climate-change/">https://judithcurry.com/2018/04/18/four-questions-on-climate-change/</a><br />
<br />
"<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "georgia" , "bitstream charter" , serif; font-size: 14px;">The scientific uncertainties associated with climate prediction are the basis of most of the arguments about the significance of climate change(25), and as well are the basis of much of the polarized public opinion on the political aspects of the matter. Perhaps the most fundamental of the uncertainties can be illustrated by reference to a simple ‘thought experiment’ as follows.</span><br />
<div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "Bitstream Charter", serif; font-size: 14px; margin-bottom: 1.7em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
Imagine a plume of smoke rising from a cigarette into some sort of flue. The stream of smoke is smooth enough for a start, but suddenly breaks into random turbulent eddies whose behaviour is inherently unpredictable."</div>
<div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "Bitstream Charter", serif; font-size: 14px; margin-bottom: 1.7em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
A detailed description follows of building climate models and attempting to match model-results to actuals.<br />
<br />
<b>Below I've picked out some interesting quotes:-</b><br />
<br />
"<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "bitstream charter" , serif;"> </span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "bitstream charter" , serif;">Even within the climate establishment, there are undoubtedly many researchers who worry that their scientific endeavours are guided more by political requirements than by scientific necessity."</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "bitstream charter" , serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "bitstream charter" , serif;">"</span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "bitstream charter" , serif;">What has happened to the scepticism that is supposedly the lifeblood of scientific enquiry?</span><br />
<div style="border: 0px; font-family: Georgia, "Bitstream Charter", serif; margin-bottom: 1.7em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
The answer probably gets back to the uncertainty of it all. The chances of proving — ‘proving’ in the hard scientific sense of requiring both observational support and replication — that the projected change of climate over the next century will be large enough to be disastrous are virtually nil. The same uncertainty ensures that the chances of a climate sceptic, or anyone else for that matter, proving the disaster theory to be oversold are also virtually nil. To that extent there is a level playing field for the two sides of the argument. "</div>
</div>
<div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "Bitstream Charter", serif; font-size: 14px; margin-bottom: 1.7em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
"<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "bitstream charter" , serif;">Climate science is an example of what Canadian educator Sue McGregor calls ‘post-normal science’ in which “the facts are uncertain, values are in dispute, stakes are high and decisions are urgent”. In such circumstances it is virtually impossible to avoid sub-conscious cherry picking of data to suit the popular theory of the time. Even Isaac Newton and Albert Einstein were not immune from the problem(17). In their case they were of sufficient genius (and were sufficiently lucky!) for their theories ultimately to trump the inaccuracy of the observations they had selected. Other scientists are rarely so prescient or so lucky."</span></div>
"<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "georgia" , "bitstream charter" , serif; font-size: 14px;">ome of the sceptics are extremely productive as far as critical analysis of climate science is concerned. Names like Judith Curry (Chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology), Steve McIntyre (a Canadian geologist-statistician) and blogger Willis Eschenbach come to mind. These three in particular provide a balance and maturity in public discussion that puts many players in the global warming movement to shame, and as a consequence their out-reach to the scientifically-inclined general public is highly effective. Their output, together with that of other sceptics on the web, is well on the way to becoming a practical and stringent substitute for peer review.</span><br />
<hr style="background-color: #cccccc; border: 0px; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "Bitstream Charter", serif; font-size: 14px; height: 1px; margin-bottom: 1.7em;" />
<div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "Bitstream Charter", serif; font-size: 14px; margin-bottom: 1.7em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
Before his retirement Professor Lennart Bengtsson was the director of the European Centre for Medium Range Forecasting, a large numerical modelling facility based in the UK which is perhaps the world’s premier institution concerned with global meteorological forecasts up to one year ahead. Modelling on this time scale involves much the same techniques as in the longer-term climate forecasting. In 2014, only three weeks after his appointment as a member of the Advisory Board to the Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF), he was forced to resign(20)."<br />
<br />
"<span style="font-family: Georgia, "Bitstream Charter", serif;">There are many examples where the transition from paid employment in climate research to retirement has been accompanied by a significant change of heart away from acknowledging the seriousness of global warming. It seems that scientists too are conscious of the need to eat, and like everyone else must consider the consequences of public dissent from the views of the powers-that-be. One example was Dr Brian Tucker."</span></div>
anngiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08182464335200536996noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6039110665031744853.post-76250409215945673452017-07-08T13:37:00.002+01:002017-07-08T13:49:16.138+01:00<br />
<a href="http://www-eaps.mit.edu/faculty/lindzen.htm">Prof. Linzen</a> listed the following topics which are often exploited by the panic
brigade to win our attention:-<br />
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
</div>
<ul>
<li>·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">‘the 97%’,</span></li>
<li>·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">‘warmest years on record’,</span></li>
<li>·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">extreme weather ,</span></li>
<li>·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">sea level rise,</span></li>
<li>·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">Arctic sea ice,</span></li>
<li>·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">polar bears,</span></li>
<li>·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">ocean acidification,</span></li>
<li>·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">coral reefs,</span></li>
<li>·<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">‘global warming as the cause of everything’.</span></li>
</ul>
& says:-<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p>‘The accumulation of false and/or misleading claims is often
referred to as the ‘overwhelming evidence’ for forthcoming catastrophe. Without
these claims, one might legitimately ask whether there is any evidence at all.'</o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
He ends:-<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
I haven’t spent much time on the details of the science, but
there is one thing that should spark skepticism in any intelligent reader. The
system we are looking at consists in two turbulent fluids interacting with each
other. They are on a rotating planet that is differentially heated by the sun.
A vital constituent of the atmospheric component is water in the liquid, solid
and vapor phases, and the changes in phase have vast energetic ramifications.
The energy budget of this system involves the absorption and reemission of
about 200 watts per square meter. Doubling CO2 involves a 2% perturbation
to this budget. So do minor changes in clouds and other features, and such
changes are common. In this complex multifactor system, what is the likelihood
of the climate (which, itself, consists in many variables and not just globally
averaged temperature anomaly) is controlled by this 2% perturbation in a single
variable? <b><i><u>Believing this is pretty close to believing in magic.</u></i></b> Instead, you
are told that it is believing in ‘science.’ Such a claim should be a tip-off
that something is amiss. After all, science is a mode of inquiry rather than a
belief structure.’<o:p></o:p></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Read the whole presentation here:-<br />
<a href="http://merionwest.com/2017/04/25/richard-lindzen-thoughts-on-the-public-discourse-over-climate-change/">http://merionwest.com/2017/04/25/richard-lindzen-thoughts-on-the-public-discourse-over-climate-change/</a><o:p></o:p></div>
<br />
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p><br /></o:p></div>
anngiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08182464335200536996noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6039110665031744853.post-24049392608214586312017-02-11T16:48:00.001+00:002017-07-08T13:41:16.707+01:00Current OverviewWell, there's not been much progress on tieing down the science of climate. Microbes in the atmosphere maybe seeding clouds. They definitely make a difference. <br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
The Atlantic is moving into a cold phase which will, over
several years, cause UK's weather to get colder, akin to the 1960s.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
However, it's likely that the additional carbon-dioxide in
the atmosphere (much less than was predicted) will raise night temperatures
slightly. And of course, the heat our towns and cities spew out also
raises average temperature. (which I understand is included in the calculations)<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The only certainty is that the average temperature has been
increasing very slowly, with lots of ups and downs along the way, for over 250
years at a fairly steady rate.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
For the past 50 years or so, carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere has been very slowly increasing. The night-time temperatures have
also been increasing during this period.<o:p></o:p></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
We need to wait lots more years before having any certainty
on how much, why and what the best policy response should be.<o:p></o:p><br />
<br />
Basically, the universe is 'determined' in that each little step moves
on in a determined way from the previous position. Our physics is not yet
sufficient to move from the little nano-steps to be able to predict the end
result e.g. you can't take the properties of a water molecule and use them to
predict how water flows downhill.<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
However, climate science does take carbon-dioxide molecular
properties and make prediction of the Earth's future average temperature, thus ignoring the mathematics of complex systems.<o:p></o:p></div>
</div>
anngiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08182464335200536996noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6039110665031744853.post-15144759331122989862015-08-10T12:14:00.002+01:002015-08-10T12:22:55.081+01:00Climate Theories should include Feedbacks from Life<br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
My theory is that Life, the earth and its
atmosphere have self-correcting dampening methods to prevent the acceleration
of temperature due to increased Greenhouse Gases, bearing in mind that:-<br />
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
(1) All the GHGs are part of the Biological Cycle.<br />
(2 ) Water can turn into rain or ice, cooling the planet.<br />
(3) No-one understands how clouds form.<o:p></o:p></div>
(4)
Microbes are everywhere, including the top of the atmosphere <span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">& inside clouds.</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p></o:p></div>
anngiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08182464335200536996noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6039110665031744853.post-63170361858128922552015-06-23T12:36:00.000+01:002018-04-25T14:32:23.784+01:00<div style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-element: para-border-div; padding: 1.0pt 4.0pt 1.0pt 4.0pt;">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-padding-alt: 1.0pt 4.0pt 1.0pt 4.0pt; padding: 0in;">
You will have heard it said that </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; padding: 0in; text-align: center;">
<b><i>climate change is real, man-made and dangerous</i>.</b><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-padding-alt: 1.0pt 4.0pt 1.0pt 4.0pt; padding: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-padding-alt: 1.0pt 4.0pt 1.0pt 4.0pt; padding: 0in;">
My investigations have uncovered lots of uncertainties, over-hyping of hypotheses, invalid use of statistics, and incorrectly fusing microscopic mathematics (e.g. radiation physics) with larger scale mathematics (e.g. fluid dynamics & thermodynamics). So my belief is that</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; padding: 0in; text-align: center;">
<b><i>climate change is real, within
natural variability, and maybe partially man-made.</i></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-padding-alt: 1.0pt 4.0pt 1.0pt 4.0pt; padding: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-padding-alt: 1.0pt 4.0pt 1.0pt 4.0pt; padding: 0in;">
Even the UN target of not
more than 2 degrees increase looks to be within natural variability.<o:p></o:p><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
Unlike the media, mainstream climate science (including
IPCC) does not warn about runaway warming. Here is a link that talks about why irreversible
runaway warming won't happen, and describes the often inapt use of the phrase “tipping
point”: <a href="http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2006/07/runaway-tipping-points-of-no-return/">http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2006/07/runaway-tipping-points-of-no-return/</a>
by gavin schmidt @ 5 July 2006<o:p></o:p></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-padding-alt: 1.0pt 4.0pt 1.0pt 4.0pt; padding: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-padding-alt: 1.0pt 4.0pt 1.0pt 4.0pt; padding: 0in;">
So we should stop wasting money
on reducing carbon-dioxide emissions in order to spend it on adapting to a
warmer world.<o:p></o:p></div>
</div>
anngiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08182464335200536996noreply@blogger.com0