10 Year Anniversary of Climate Gate
It’s Officially the Tenth Anniversary
of Climategate – and they’ve learned nothing
By Charles Rotter and Anthony Watts
From Charles:
It was ten years ago today that I personally
first viewed the instructions to download the Climategate files from the
anonymous Russian server. That set in motion a series of events still
affecting the outcome of worldwide energy and environmental policy today.
The whitewashers at the BBC, The Guardian, and elsewhere have started putting
up their officially sanctioned narrative version, amounting to little more than
nothing to see hear move along.
I wrote up my contemporaneous version of
events here.
Anyone who wants to rebut claims of
exoneration can
use this Ross McKitrick paper for reference.
A couple of days ago we reposted Judith
Curry’s excellent 10 year anniversary write up.
November 15, 2019
…
Did climate scientists learn anything
from Climategate?
Looking forward, should Climategate
matter? Only if scientists failed to learn the appropriate lessons.
At the time of Climategate, I wrote an
essay entitled On
the credibility of climate research.
I raised four key issues:
·
Lack of transparency,
·
climate tribalism,
·
the need for improved analysis and
·
communication of uncertainty, and
·
engagement with ‘skeptics’ and critics of our
work.
At the time, I was rather astonished by
the failure of climate science ‘leaders’ (apart from the climagaters defending
themselves) to make public statements about this and show some leadership.
Interesting insights into the
‘leadership’ void at the time of Climategate are revealed by a tranche of
emails obtained by the CEI [link]
dated the first half of 2010, involving scientists involved iClimategate emails
as well as others who are regarded as the keepers of the IPCC ‘flame’ – e.g.
Michael Oppenheimer, Steve Schneider, Gabi Hegerl, Eric Steig, Kevin Trenberth.
…
…
"At the time, climate-change
deniers were desperate to find ways to undermine the idea that global warming
was real" and
SUN_Climate_20200101
DOCUMENTING
EARTH CHANGES DURING THE NEXT GSM AND POLE SHIFT
PROFESSOR VALENTINA ZHARKOVA’S
‘EXPANDED’ ANALYSIS STILL CONFIRMS SUPER GRAND SOLAR MINIMUM (2020-2055)
Professor
Valentina Zharkova’s recent paper ‘Oscillations of the Baseline of Solar
Magnetic Field and Solar Irradiance on a Millennial Timescale’ has been
accepted for publishing in Nature. It
confirms a Grand Solar Minimum
(GSM) from 2020 to 2055, as all four magnetic fields of the sun go
out of phase, while also suggesting centuries of natural warming post-Minima.
Zharkova’s team’s expanded ‘double
dynamo’ calculations match-up almost perfectly with the timelines of past Grand
Minimas: the Maunder Minimum (1645–1715), Wolf minimum (1300–1350),
Oort minimum (1000–1050), Homer minimum (800–900 BC); as well as with the
past Grand Maximas: the Medieval Warm Period (900–1200), the Roman
Warm Period (400–150 BC), and so on…
Coming as somewhat of a surprise
however, Zharkova’s full and expanded analysis reveals the
sun, following its next GSM cycle (2020-2055), will actually enter a 300+ year
spell of increased-activity warming the earth at a rate of
0.5C (0.9F) per century, running until the next GSM cycle (2370-2415).
Succeeding that cooling period
(2415-onward), the world, according to Zharkova, will continue on with its
warming trend, again at an average of 0.5C (0.9F) per century, until the year
2600 when the sun will flip to a prolonged cooling phase
running for the next 1000 years (and likely propelling Earth into the next
ice age).
…
Our star is effectively shutting down,
starting next year (2020).
The upcoming GSM is forecast (by
Zharkova herself, among others) to be similar to the Maunder Minimum (1645-1715)
— a time when sunspots were exceedingly rare and much of
the planet experienced colder than average temperatures.
We are already seeing an increase in
unstable weather patterns, as the weakest solar cycle in over 100 years (SC24)
continues to weaken the jet stream, reverting it’s usual zonal (tight) flow to
more of a meridional (wavy) one.
14 Jan 2018 - A solar
minimum is the low activity trough of the 11-year solar cycle (Schwabe Cycle).
... 1645 and 1715) that coincided with the coldest phase of
the Little Ice Age. ... warming, as in the Roman Warm Period,
the Medieval Climate Optimum and ... Even when – in a given year
– average temperatures are only ...
14 Jan 2018 - A solar
minimum is the low activity trough of the 11-year solar cycle (Schwabe Cycle).
... 1645 and 1715) that coincided with the coldest phase of
the Little Ice Age. ... warming, as in the Roman Warm Period,
the Medieval Climate Optimum and ... Even when – in a given year
– average temperatures are only ...
It confirms a Grand Solar
Minimum (GSM) from 2020 to 2055, as all four ... with the past Grand Maximas:
the Medieval Warm Period (900–1200), the Roman Warm ...
reveals the sun, following its next GSM cycle (2020-2055), will actually
enter a ... cooling period beginning 2020 should be enough to give almost-every
living ...
<Solar Minimums are periods where there are fewer sunspots –
associated with cooler weather e.g. Britain's "Little Ice Age" (about
c1300 to c1850.)>
An approaching Grand Solar
Minimum is gaining evermore support. ... NASA's forecast for the
next solar cycle (25) reveals it will be the
weakest of the last 200 years. ... about space weather are
good news for mission planners who can schedule ... to the
Dalton Minimum (1790-1830) but gives no
mention of the brutal cold, ...
“If the upcoming solar max
of cycle 24 is normal or robust,” I
continued, “and ... This affects us because Earth's climate gets
cooler when there are fewer solar storms. ... warmer than
at the time of the Maunder Minimum and says that a return to a
.... and volcanic eruptions that tend to be a part of the Grand Solar
Minimum.
An uptick in high-level volcanic
eruptions is also associated with low solar activity. Increasing Cosmic Rays
are believed to heat the muons in subsurface silica-rich magma (click
here for more on that). And larger eruptions (ones that fire
volcanic ash above 32,800 feet (10 km) and into the Stratosphere) have a direct
cooling effect on the planet, as these ejected particulates effectively block
out the sun.
An
approaching Grand Solar Minimum is gaining evermore support. Even NASA appears
to be on-board, with their recent SC25 prediction — though, predictably, they
stay clear of the implications.
NASA’s forecast for the next solar cycle
(25) reveals it will be the weakest of the last 200 years.
The maximum of this next cycle —
measured in terms of sunspot number, a standard measure of solar activity level
— could be 30 to 50% lower than the most recent one.
The agency’s results show that the next
cycle will start in 2020 and reach its maximum in 2025:
NASA Solar Cycle website
