More than 13.9 million trees felled in Scotland for wind development, 2000–2019
Author:
Tuesday, 28 January 2020
Tuesday, 21 January 2020
Australian Bush Fires
by Viv Forbes
Viv Forbes has long experience of
bushfires in Northern Australia – lighting, fighting and cleaning up after
them.
… We’ve had at least 57 bushfire
inquiries since 1939, which is about one every two years. Anyone who bothers to
read them will soon deduce what should be done. Nothing much has changed except
there are more people living in fire-prone zones with no protection, and more
forest and private land has been locked up with heavy fuel loads.
The current bushfire tragedy has
occurred after 30 years of unprecedented government control of environmental
policy at all levels. Many of these destructive policies have been imported
under so called ‘international agreements’. As a result, ordinary Australians
have been dragged into court for constructing firebreaks or removing dangerous
trees on their own land. Governments and green advisers have assumed total
stewardship of the environment and they own the results – massive destruction
of lives, homes, property, animals and vegetation – over five million hectares
and 2,000 homes burnt.
…
Here is a five-point plan which
should come from Bushfire Inquiry number 58.
Firstly,
reduce the fuel load especially in national parks and forests by cool season
burning, grazing, timber harvesting, slashing/mulching and collecting dead
firewood. Appoint trained and experienced foresters to maintain safe and
healthy public forests. Private landowners should also be enabled and obliged
to become fire safe. Green-tinged politicians and bureaucrats have prevented or
hampered all of these reforms.
Secondly,
create and maintain wide clear trafficable roads, tracks and firebreaks through
the forests and around towns and private properties. In fire seasons, these
patrolled fire-barriers will help to confine any fire to one sector and provide
a prepared line from which to back burn if there is an approaching fire.
Thirdly,
build more dams and weirs to provide water for fire-fighting and to provide
fire havens for humans, animals and vegetation. Increase penalties for arson in
times of high fire danger.
Fourthly,
abolish all restrictions on responsible management of ‘protected’ vegetation
reserves on private land – especially the private land sterilised to fulfil
foolish government Kyoto Protocol promises or under government-enforced
vegetation protection orders. Governments have created these fire hazards by
trying to wrap vast areas of vegetation in cotton wool and green tape (both of
which are flammable). Government ‘protection’ of flora and fauna has proved to
be the fiery kiss of death.
Fifthly,
decentralise fuel and forest management out of the cities and into the regions.
Saturday, 4 January 2020
Are Government Rules Increasing Wildfires?
Are Government Rules Increasing Numbers of Wildfires?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/01/04/green-agenda-exacerbating-australias-wildfire-problem/
4th January 2020
... many are blaming the greens for exacerbating the fires by meddling in the time- honoured practice of burning off excess vegetation to mitigate wildfires.
From the Telegraph ...
"All over the world farmers
are being prevented by “experts” in government quangos from carrying out
controlled burning to manage habitats prone to catching fire. Often the
precautionary principle on climate is cited. Yet when Caithness’s Flow Country
caught fire recently the fire brigade cited the lack of precautions in allowing
moors to become overgrown.
And these wildfires massively
increase carbon in the atmosphere because they set the underlying peat alight.
While the Caithness fire was burning it was estimated that it doubled
Scotland’s carbon emissions for the six days that it burned.
Upland land managers in England
are currently in dispute with Defra over plans to restrict controlled burning
on deep peat. It started with an RSPB challenge in the European courts based on
highly questionable pre-2013 science, and EU habitat directives. This led to a
voluntary code whereby farmers could only burn to strict criteria such as
restoring habitat health. But a Natural England position paper in 2019 would
effectively “nail it down so hard as effectively to stop it” according to the
Moorland Association.
The science is hotly disputed but
research has shown that so-called “cool burning”, the
controlled burning of heather when conditions allow in winter, can –
counter-intuitively – increase carbon sequestration by turning excess
vegetation into charcoal and stimulating plant growth by regenerating sphagnum
moss and moorland grasses that absorb more CO2.
Breeding bird surveys have consistently pointed to strong correlations between
endangered wading bird numbers and moorland
that has been burnt. The golden plover, in particular, prefers to nest on
recently burnt patches; their eggs are even camouflaged accordingly. And
speaker after speaker at the 2019 Wildfires Conference in Cardiff spoke of the
need to reduce vegetation in vulnerable areas."
Californian Wildfires
WILDFIRES
Is climate change driving blazes? Experts say no
https://www.thegwpf.com/climate-change-plaid-minor-role-in-californian-wildfires-experts-conclude/https://www.thegwpf.com/climate-change-plaid-minor-role-in-californian-wildfires-experts-conclude/
Wednesday, 1 January 2020
Early 20th century global warming - Overview of Judith Curry's observation on early 20th century warming:-
by Judith Curry
A careful look at the early 20th century global warming, which is almost as large as the warming since 1950. Until we can explain the early 20th century warming, I have little confidence IPCC and NCA4 attribution statements regarding the cause of the recent warming.
This is an issue that has long interested me. Peter Webster wrote a previous post Mid 20th Century Global(?) Warming, which focused on the warm bump that culminated in the 1940’s. My interest in this period was reignited while working on my report Sea Level and Climate Change. Then, the recent paper by Zanna et al. discussed in Ocean Heat Content Surprises further made the wheels turn.
In response to the Ocean Heat Content thread, David Appell posted a link to this paper on twitter:
10 Year Anniversary of Climate Gate
It’s Officially the Tenth Anniversary
of Climategate – and they’ve learned nothing
By Charles Rotter and Anthony Watts
From Charles:
It was ten years ago today that I personally
first viewed the instructions to download the Climategate files from the
anonymous Russian server. That set in motion a series of events still
affecting the outcome of worldwide energy and environmental policy today.
The whitewashers at the BBC, The Guardian, and elsewhere have started putting
up their officially sanctioned narrative version, amounting to little more than
nothing to see hear move along.
I wrote up my contemporaneous version of
events here.
Anyone who wants to rebut claims of
exoneration can
use this Ross McKitrick paper for reference.
A couple of days ago we reposted Judith
Curry’s excellent 10 year anniversary write up.
November 15, 2019
…
Did climate scientists learn anything
from Climategate?
Looking forward, should Climategate
matter? Only if scientists failed to learn the appropriate lessons.
At the time of Climategate, I wrote an
essay entitled On
the credibility of climate research.
I raised four key issues:
·
Lack of transparency,
·
climate tribalism,
·
the need for improved analysis and
·
communication of uncertainty, and
·
engagement with ‘skeptics’ and critics of our
work.
At the time, I was rather astonished by
the failure of climate science ‘leaders’ (apart from the climagaters defending
themselves) to make public statements about this and show some leadership.
Interesting insights into the
‘leadership’ void at the time of Climategate are revealed by a tranche of
emails obtained by the CEI [link]
dated the first half of 2010, involving scientists involved iClimategate emails
as well as others who are regarded as the keepers of the IPCC ‘flame’ – e.g.
Michael Oppenheimer, Steve Schneider, Gabi Hegerl, Eric Steig, Kevin Trenberth.
…
…
"At the time, climate-change
deniers were desperate to find ways to undermine the idea that global warming
was real" and
SUN_Climate_20200101
DOCUMENTING
EARTH CHANGES DURING THE NEXT GSM AND POLE SHIFT
PROFESSOR VALENTINA ZHARKOVA’S
‘EXPANDED’ ANALYSIS STILL CONFIRMS SUPER GRAND SOLAR MINIMUM (2020-2055)
Professor
Valentina Zharkova’s recent paper ‘Oscillations of the Baseline of Solar
Magnetic Field and Solar Irradiance on a Millennial Timescale’ has been
accepted for publishing in Nature. It
confirms a Grand Solar Minimum
(GSM) from 2020 to 2055, as all four magnetic fields of the sun go
out of phase, while also suggesting centuries of natural warming post-Minima.
Zharkova’s team’s expanded ‘double
dynamo’ calculations match-up almost perfectly with the timelines of past Grand
Minimas: the Maunder Minimum (1645–1715), Wolf minimum (1300–1350),
Oort minimum (1000–1050), Homer minimum (800–900 BC); as well as with the
past Grand Maximas: the Medieval Warm Period (900–1200), the Roman
Warm Period (400–150 BC), and so on…
Coming as somewhat of a surprise
however, Zharkova’s full and expanded analysis reveals the
sun, following its next GSM cycle (2020-2055), will actually enter a 300+ year
spell of increased-activity warming the earth at a rate of
0.5C (0.9F) per century, running until the next GSM cycle (2370-2415).
Succeeding that cooling period
(2415-onward), the world, according to Zharkova, will continue on with its
warming trend, again at an average of 0.5C (0.9F) per century, until the year
2600 when the sun will flip to a prolonged cooling phase
running for the next 1000 years (and likely propelling Earth into the next
ice age).
…
Our star is effectively shutting down,
starting next year (2020).
The upcoming GSM is forecast (by
Zharkova herself, among others) to be similar to the Maunder Minimum (1645-1715)
— a time when sunspots were exceedingly rare and much of
the planet experienced colder than average temperatures.
We are already seeing an increase in
unstable weather patterns, as the weakest solar cycle in over 100 years (SC24)
continues to weaken the jet stream, reverting it’s usual zonal (tight) flow to
more of a meridional (wavy) one.
14 Jan 2018 - A solar
minimum is the low activity trough of the 11-year solar cycle (Schwabe Cycle).
... 1645 and 1715) that coincided with the coldest phase of
the Little Ice Age. ... warming, as in the Roman Warm Period,
the Medieval Climate Optimum and ... Even when – in a given year
– average temperatures are only ...
14 Jan 2018 - A solar
minimum is the low activity trough of the 11-year solar cycle (Schwabe Cycle).
... 1645 and 1715) that coincided with the coldest phase of
the Little Ice Age. ... warming, as in the Roman Warm Period,
the Medieval Climate Optimum and ... Even when – in a given year
– average temperatures are only ...
It confirms a Grand Solar
Minimum (GSM) from 2020 to 2055, as all four ... with the past Grand Maximas:
the Medieval Warm Period (900–1200), the Roman Warm ...
reveals the sun, following its next GSM cycle (2020-2055), will actually
enter a ... cooling period beginning 2020 should be enough to give almost-every
living ...
<Solar Minimums are periods where there are fewer sunspots –
associated with cooler weather e.g. Britain's "Little Ice Age" (about
c1300 to c1850.)>
An approaching Grand Solar
Minimum is gaining evermore support. ... NASA's forecast for the
next solar cycle (25) reveals it will be the
weakest of the last 200 years. ... about space weather are
good news for mission planners who can schedule ... to the
Dalton Minimum (1790-1830) but gives no
mention of the brutal cold, ...
“If the upcoming solar max
of cycle 24 is normal or robust,” I
continued, “and ... This affects us because Earth's climate gets
cooler when there are fewer solar storms. ... warmer than
at the time of the Maunder Minimum and says that a return to a
.... and volcanic eruptions that tend to be a part of the Grand Solar
Minimum.
An uptick in high-level volcanic
eruptions is also associated with low solar activity. Increasing Cosmic Rays
are believed to heat the muons in subsurface silica-rich magma (click
here for more on that). And larger eruptions (ones that fire
volcanic ash above 32,800 feet (10 km) and into the Stratosphere) have a direct
cooling effect on the planet, as these ejected particulates effectively block
out the sun.
An
approaching Grand Solar Minimum is gaining evermore support. Even NASA appears
to be on-board, with their recent SC25 prediction — though, predictably, they
stay clear of the implications.
NASA’s forecast for the next solar cycle
(25) reveals it will be the weakest of the last 200 years.
The maximum of this next cycle —
measured in terms of sunspot number, a standard measure of solar activity level
— could be 30 to 50% lower than the most recent one.
The agency’s results show that the next
cycle will start in 2020 and reach its maximum in 2025:
NASA Solar Cycle website
Global Warming by CO2 or Cooling by Grand Solar Flare Minimum?
The next Grand Solar Minimum, Cosmic Rays and Earth Changes (an introduction)
https://abruptearthchanges.com/2018/01/14/climate-change-grand-solar-minimum-and-cosmic-rays/
https://www.whatsorb.com/news/global-warming-by-co2-or-cooling-by-a-grand-solar-minimum?
NASA’s forecast for the next solar cycle (25) reveals it will be the weakest of the last 200 years. - 30 to 50% lower than the most recent one
The next Solar Cycle (25) will be the weakest of the last 200 years.
NASA’s results show that the next cycle will start in 2020 and reach its maximum in 2025
DOCUMENTING
EARTH CHANGES DURING THE NEXT GSM AND POLE SHIFT
PROFESSOR VALENTINA ZHARKOVA’S
‘EXPANDED’ ANALYSIS STILL CONFIRMS SUPER GRAND SOLAR MINIMUM (2020-2055)
Professor
Valentina Zharkova’s recent paper ‘Oscillations of the Baseline of Solar
Magnetic Field and Solar Irradiance on a Millennial Timescale’ has been
accepted for publishing in Nature. It
confirms a Grand Solar Minimum
(GSM) from 2020 to 2055, as all four magnetic fields of the sun go
out of phase, while also suggesting centuries of natural warming post-Minima.
Zharkova’s team’s expanded ‘double
dynamo’ calculations match-up almost perfectly with the timelines of past Grand
Minimas: the Maunder Minimum (1645–1715), Wolf minimum (1300–1350),
Oort minimum (1000–1050), Homer minimum (800–900 BC); as well as with the
past Grand Maximas: the Medieval Warm Period (900–1200), the Roman
Warm Period (400–150 BC), and so on…
Coming as somewhat of a surprise
however, Zharkova’s full and expanded analysis reveals the
sun, following its next GSM cycle (2020-2055), will actually enter a 300+ year
spell of increased-activity warming the earth at a rate of
0.5C (0.9F) per century, running until the next GSM cycle (2370-2415).
Succeeding that cooling period
(2415-onward), the world, according to Zharkova, will continue on with its
warming trend, again at an average of 0.5C (0.9F) per century, until the year
2600 when the sun will flip to a prolonged cooling phase
running for the next 1000 years (and likely propelling Earth into the next
ice age).
…
Our star is effectively shutting down,
starting next year (2020).
The upcoming GSM is forecast (by
Zharkova herself, among others) to be similar to the Maunder Minimum (1645-1715)
— a time when sunspots were exceedingly rare and much of
the planet experienced colder than average temperatures.
We are already seeing an increase in
unstable weather patterns, as the weakest solar cycle in over 100 years (SC24)
continues to weaken the jet stream, reverting it’s usual zonal (tight) flow to
more of a meridional (wavy) one.
14 Jan 2018 - A solar
minimum is the low activity trough of the 11-year solar cycle (Schwabe Cycle).
... 1645 and 1715) that coincided with the coldest phase of
the Little Ice Age. ... warming, as in the Roman Warm Period,
the Medieval Climate Optimum and ... Even when – in a given year
– average temperatures are only ...
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